Predictions For Primary Election Night In Pennsylvania And Arkansas

The primaries that are taking place in Pennsylvania and Arkansas are generating much anticipation from those who follow politics and care about the issues.  The two main draws tonight are in Pennsylvania where Senator Specter has battled with his primary foe Representative Sestak, and in Arkansas where Senator Lincoln has tangled with Bill Halter.

First Arkansas.

I think Senator Lincoln has a very good chance of winning tonight, which means taking the required 50% of the vote in a three-way contest.  The reason I say this is due to the third candidate, D.C. Morrison, who has taken a highly conservative approach to the issues and was trying to run to the right of both Lincoln and Halter.  In other words, Morrison is way off the reservation and I do not think there are enough votes there in this primary to deny Lincoln the win.  (Remember that IF she deserves to win is a whole other issue.)  Morrison has been able, to his credit, to stay out of the back-and-forth between the two main combatants, but I have not seen any evidence that his message has resonated.

Lincoln wins just shy of 51% of the vote.

Now Pennsylvania.

This is the night that the long political career for Senator Arlen Specter ends.  I have mixed feelings about this.  Though he has been one of the sensible middle within the Republican Party for many long years, and allowed for compromise and thoughtful dialogue to often win the day, there is a sense that he has lost his way for political expediency when he switched political parties.   I think the tea leaves made clear the state of this race when in the closing days President Obama did not make another trip to the Keystone State on behalf of the beleaguered Senator.  One of Spector’s problems tonight will be that he needs a huge black turnout to win.  But as we have been reminded for weeks the Senator only had a 25% black turnout in 2004.  I do not think that putting a ‘D” behind his name for a primary in 2010 will enhance that number. 

I call Sestak by 4 points.