It Appears START Treaty Will Pass Senate

This is good news for the country.  The international community.  From Roll Call.   

The two items I wanted passed, and thought could be passed in the lame duck session were the repeal of DADT, and the passage of START.  While the Dream Act would have been a wonderful addition, I never thought it possible to pass given the current dynamics in Washington.  So the news this morning of Senator Alexander’s support for START is confirmation that we are heading in the right direction.  I think this will clear the senate in the next 48 hours at the latest.

Lamar Alexander’s unexpected endorsement this morning signals essentially irreversible momentum for approval of the Russian arms control treaty — especially with a senatorial side deal now in the offing that’s going to win over a handful of defense hawks. But it looks like late Thursday night for the final vote, and maybe Christmas Eve morning, if Jon Kyl and other angry Republican opponents of the accord get their way.

There are 57 sure Democratic votes for the pact, and a 58th if Ron Wyden is well enough to get back to the Capitol after prostate cancer surgery Monday at Johns Hopkins in Baltimore. (The retiring Evan Bayh decided it was more important to continue his “farewell tour” of Indiana than to keep up his senatorial obligations for the first half of the week, but he’s promised to be back for the final Start vote.)

Whether Wyden is on hand or not, the treaty still needs the support of nine Republicans for ratification (two-thirds of 100 senators present is 67 but two-thirds of 99 senators present is 66.) Alexander, who as GOP conference chairman is No. 3 in the leadership hierarchy, becomes the sixth Republican  “yes” vote — joining  Dick Lugar, Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, George Voinovich and Scott Brown. But Judd Gregg, Bob Corker and Johnny Isakson are almost certain to vote for the deal as well.

Those votes alone would seem to seal the deal, but there’s also a chance that an amendment to the “resolution of ratification” declaring U.S.  intentions to keep building a missile defense shield, which would not require reopening negotiaions with the Russians, will help win over as many as four other Republicans; John McCain, Bob Bennett, Thad Cochran and Lisa Murkowski.

And from The New York Times.

To get the constitutionally required two-thirds majority, the treaty would need support from nine Republicans. Mr. Brown is the fifth Republican to say he will vote yes, and Mr. Gregg and Mr. Corker would make seven. Senator Johnny Isakson of Georgia voted for it in committee and appeared likely to vote yes on the floor, and a half-dozen or more other Republicans have said they could support it if their concerns were addressed.