Will The ‘Bradley Effect’ On Barack Obama Put Al Gore In The White House Campaign?

With the issues that face the nation as a result of Republican ineptitude along with their callous disregard for the truth, there is little reason that a Democratic nominee should not win the White House this year.  But as we prepare for about two more weeks of a bitter fight leading up to the primaries on May 6th between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, we know that this will only produce more dust and confusion about the outcome of this nominating process.  Democrats everywhere must wonder what is happening to our November goal?  More importantly what is running through the minds of the powerful forces that run the Democratic Party?

One of the concerns that many have talked about for weeks is the ‘Bradley Effect’, or the ‘Ford Effect’ named after two prominent black democratic candidates who found themselves wining in the polls only to face racism from voters in the voting booths.  Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley and former Congressman Harold Ford, Jr. both had huge poll numbers as voters said they would vote for them.  They were on the way to winning as Governor of California and the Tennessee U.S. Senate seat respectively.  But once voters were in the privacy of the voting booth things changed.  America still has a very deep seated problem with racism.  We like to pretend we are above it in certain ways, but sadly we are not.  The results in the Pennsylvania Primary show us why that is true.

When exit polls for the Pennsylvania primary came out late Tuesday afternoon showing a puny lead of 3.6 points for Hillary Clinton against Barack Obama, Democratic leaders who desperately wanted her to end her candidacy were not cheered. They were sure that this overstated Sen. Obama’s strength, as exit polls nearly always have in urban, diverse states. How was it possible, then, that Sen. Clinton, given up for dead by her party’s establishment, won Pennsylvania in a 10-point landslide? The answer is the dreaded Bradley Effect.

Prominent Democrats only whisper when they compare Obama, the first African-American witha serious chance to be president, with what happened to Los Angeles’ black Mayor Tom Bradley a quarter of a century ago. Exit polls in 1982 showed Bradley ahead for governor of California, but he actually lost to Republican George Deukmejian. Pollster John Zogby (who correctly predicted Clinton’s double-digit win Tuesday) said what practicing Democrats would not. “I think voters face-to-face are not willing to say they would oppose an andan African-American candidate,” Zogby told me.

If there really is a Bradley Effect in 2008, Zogby sees November peril ahead for Obama in blue states. John McCain is a potential winner not only in Pennsylvania but also Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota, and can retain Ohio. But there seems no way Clinton can overtake Obama’s lead in delegates and the popular vote. For unelected super-delegates to deprive Obama of the nomination would so depress African-American general election votes that the nomination would be worthless. In a year when all normal political indicators point to Republican defeat on all fronts, the Democratic Party faces a deepening dilemma.

As Democrats ponder this situation there is again the idea that perhaps a third way can be found to stir all the hearts of the Democratic Party and bring unity for the fall campaign.  That way is found in the candidacy of Al Gore.  After all, he won the White House once before.

In the wake of Barack Obama’s defeat in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, the Democrats have a huge problem. On the one hand, they have a front-runner who hasn’t won a single one of the major primary states other than his own, who’s a neophyte on the national scene, and who has enormous difficulties attracting the white, non-college educated voters he needs to win. On the other, there’s Hillary Clinton - a candidate who has greatly diminished her stature on the campaign trail, who faces huge liabilities of her own (in part because of her gender and in part because of Clinton fatigue), and whose chances of winning in November would require her to thread an Electoral College needle.

Furthermore, the long, bitter campaign has produced an untenable result: a large portion of each camp’s supporters now say they are unlikely to support the intra-party rival should their candidate not win the nomination.

Therefore, if the Democrats want to have their best chance to win an election in November that six months ago it looked like they couldn’t lose, they may have only one option at this point: they can turn to Al Gore.

In truth, Gore would be a stronger candidate in November than the two front-runners. He knows what it’s like to run in a tough presidential campaign, which, as we’re finding out with Obama, is a huge advantage. He is, after all, a Nobel Prize winner; he has the advantage of now running from outside Washington even though he’s as experienced as John McCain; and he might be able to pick off a Southern state or two. He’s already won once - with an asterisk. And he could put the electoral focus back on the economy and the Republican record of the past eight years - which it will rarely be as long as Clinton or Obama is the nominee.

Sure, Gore’s entry would obviously not be greeted with waves of enthusiasm by Obamasupporters. Still, he is quite popular with one of the Illinois senator’s principal constituencies: the young.

Where the Democratic Party heads, and on what shoulders the responsibilities will be placed, is not certain this morning by any means.  But the needs of the nation are paramount.  The removal of the entire Bush and Company team and mentality must be our goal this year.

Technorati Tags: BradleyEffect, TomBradley, HaroldFord, HillaryClinton, BarackObama, Democrats, Election08, AlGore

 

Al Gore: A New Powerful Slideshow About Climate Change

I am not sure how wide spread this video has been distributed, but I feel it is so well done with such a powerful message, that I wanted it here on my site regardless where else it may be posted.  I found Gore’s message so remarkable due to the angle that he takes on climate change.  The ‘democracy crisis’ must be addressed so that the climate changes can be addressed.  A mission of a whole generation is required to do the work to save the planet.  This is worth your time, and I know you will feel rewarded as a result of watching.  I ask that you pass this video around to friends.  Need not be my site….just get the Al Gore video out to the world.

Technorati Tags: AlGore, Environment,, Election08,, Ethics,, Society

 

Can Al Gore Solve The Democratic Election Fight? Would He Want To?

I am not sure that Al Gore wants to be involved in this fight for the Democratic nomination, either as a mediator or as a potential nominee himself.  His position in the nation, indeed around the globe, is almost one of being above mere politics.  His laudable work for the betterment of the world in the fight against global warming places him in a most respected position from which he can work to persuade others to see the correct path on policy issues.

Yet there are articles every day on the possibility that Al Gore will step up and address the fight that is dominating this election year, the battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the nomination.

The New York Observer weighs in with their views.

Uniquely among the fraternity of failed Democratic nominees, Mr. Gore has regained his standing within the party, and then some. His early opposition to the war in Iraq and tireless advocacy for combating global warming—a cause he basically personifies—made him a liberal supernova. He won an Oscar, an Emmy, a Nobel Peace Prize. He shed his suit and tie, started dressing in black shirts and jackets and cowboy boots, and took a job with Apple. His resistance to impassioned pleas leading up to the elections in 2004 and 2008 to run again only further cemented his reputation among Democrats as the unflappable Goracle.

Mr. Gore declined, through a spokeswoman, to comment for this article.

“There is no Democrat who can dictate the nominee,” said Robert Zimmerman, a former fund-raiser close to Mr. Gore who is now supporting Mrs. Clinton. “However, Al Gore can play a unique role in uniting the party and bringing an end to the fighting after the primary and caucuses have concluded.”

“Certainly, if anybody has earned the right to do whatever he wants in political life after 2000, he certainly has earned that right,” said Alan Kessler, a former Gore fund-raiser who is supporting Mrs. Clinton for president. He added that an endorsement “might be perceived as a little bit unfair for him to do, because he is so influential.”

It is taken for granted by most Democratic insiders, with good reason, that if Mr. Gore did weigh in, it would be on the Obama side.

Technorati Tags: AlGore, NewYorkObserver, HillaryClinton, BarackObama, Election08, Democrats

Do We Want Barack Obama Or Hillary Clinton In Our Home?

Recently I had the chance to talk with a radio broadcaster from Chicago.  In our conversation I expressed my thanks to him for being the type of radio talk show host that I wanted to invite into my home.  After all, that is the way every radio and TV personality should be evaluated by all Americans.  Are they the type we honor by inviting them through the airwaves into our homes? Are they of the caliber and character to be in our space?

I think that at some level that is also the way we make our choice for President of the United States.  After all the debate about health care and immigration, and the many other vital issues that impact our nation, I think it comes down to who is more likely to be welcome as a long term guest in our home via the television?  Who has the ability to engage us in a long-term conversation as our leader on the evening news, and political shows without us wanting to bar them at the door?

Senator Hillary Clinton surprised me by being so ‘accessible’ when I met and talked with her in Madison the night before the Wisconsin Primary.  On television she has tried to make herself into a tough leader who could make the hard decisions, but by doing so has in effect made herself come across as less friendly and more hard-edged.  So when she walked with calm composure and made herself available with effortless laughter and intelligent conversation at her campaign rally my first thought was how ‘assessible’ as a person she could be.  That side of her is very hard to discern on television. 

Barack Obama has a talent for conversation and thoughtful dialogue that demand we listen and pay attention.  He is well suited for the camera and the television screen.  His calm demeanor and slow delivery enhances the connection with his television audience.  It is due to that type of speech pattern that 63% of the Democratic Primary electorate in the latest CBS/New York Times poll state that Obama cares about them “a lot”.  It is due to that effective use of language and media image that creates a personal feeling for Obama that places him comfortably ahead of Clinton in the nominating process.   We want to like our leaders, and the fact that many already love him is why so many are ready to invite him into their homes for the next four years.

I have met many politicians over the years (that is my thing) and there have been a handful that was so very different in person as opposed to being on television.  Vice-President Al Gore, and former Illinois Senator Paul Simon are two examples of not having a strong television presence, but having warm and remarkable personalities up-close and in person.  On the other hand, I found former Senator Bob Dole, and former Democratic nominee Mike Dukakis as dry as dust when I met them.  Sadly they matched their TV image. 

Would I rather have a substantive candidate with a less than desirable personality elected President in order to have the correct decisions made over the fate of the nation?  Yes.  But that is not how the media driven elections in America work.  After all, President Bush was judged to be the one most Americans would want to have a beer with.  Today we realize that the wooden image of Al Gore on TV would have been far preferable to the former cheerleader from Texas.  But in this media age I do not think it possible to decide our President solely on the merits of the issues, or the leadership strengths of the candidate themselves.  There is that ‘thing’ that the TV lens amplifies in some candidates, and totally misses in others that will be the deciding factor in the Democratic primaries to come, and the general election this fall.

Technorati Tags: BarackObama, HillaryClinton, Election08, 2008Election, Media, AlGore, Elections

Russian President Putin Great Pick For Person Of The Year

Being a lover of Russian history, and the political world of Russian President Vladimir Putin, I am pleased that he is Time Magazine’s Person Of The Year.  The issue will be a pleasure to read. 

Putin, 55, who has said he may become Russia’s prime minister after stepping down as president next year, has helped lead the country back to stability “at significant cost to the principles and ideas that free nations prize,” Richard Stengel, the magazine’s managing editor, wrote in an article explaining the choice.

My prediction that Al Gore would make the cover was wrong, but he was considered by the magazine.

Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore, a Nobel Prize winner, “Harry Potter” author J.K. Rowling, Chinese President Hu Jintao and David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, were named runners-up, the magazine said.

Technorati Tags: RussianPresidentPutin, Russia, Time, PersonOfTheYear, AlGore

Progressive Dane Plans To Take Over Dane County Democrats

Everyone knows what Progressive Dane is all about.  Their tactics smell. 

 Today The Critical Badger shines a light on the stench.  He writes the following.

Russell Wallace dropped off over 40 new memberships ($10/piece) to the Dane County Democratic Party last night, just before the deadline to ensure he will have a healthy majority in the race against Wayne Bigelow. A typical PDesque way to ensure victory.

Wallace and Bigelow are running for Chairperson of the Dane County Democratic Party. 

Wayne Bigelow understands that driving the car off a cliff does not encourage others to be passengers.  He cares about the county party and deserves to be elected again.

Russell Wallace is smart and energized, but the wrong choice for Democrats who wish for more than a litmus test on political purity.

Technorati Tags: ProgressiveDane, RussellWallace, Madison, DaneCounty
WayneBigelow

My Prediction For Time Magazine’s 2007 Person Of The Year

Every year I love to make a prediction for Time Magazine’s Person Of The Year. Last year, my prediction was posted on December 4, 2006.  I wrote, “I predict the cover of Time magazine will feature the web mover and shaker, “You Tube” and their creators, as the force that made a most important mark on our lives.”

Though Time had a larger array of user generated internet content that they included in their selection last year, my prediction of “You Tube” was one of those listed as ”You”, as 2006’s “Person Of The Year”.  That is the first time ever that my Time magazine prediction had proved correct.

So this year my prediction is………..

Al Gore.

He has made global warming a topic that every educated person everywhere now feels compelled to do something about.  His global reach and concern over this matter makes him a true citizen of the world.  And he works to encourage us to follow him, and act with care about this planet.

Al Gore will be Time Magazine’s Person Of The Year.
Technorati Tags: Time, PersonOfTheYear, AlGore, Prediction

Best Paragraphs From Sunday’s Newspaper

Once again Thomas Friedman from The New York Times is a must read today.   How Bush wasted his Presidency seems to sum it all up…..

Mr. Gore lost the presidency, but in the dignity and grace with which he gave up his legal fight, he united America. Then, faced with what to do with the rest of his life, he took up a personal crusade to combat climate change, even though the odds were stacked against him, his soapbox was small, his audiences were measured in hundreds, and his critics were legion. Nevertheless, Mr. Gore stuck with it and over time has played a central role in building a global consensus for action on this issue.

Indeed, Mr. Bush, rather than taking all that unity and using it to rebuild America for the 21st century, took all that unity and used it to push the narrow agenda of his “base.” He used all that unity to take a far-right agenda on taxes and social issues that was going nowhere on 9/10 and drive it into a 9/12 world.

Never has so much national unity — which could have been used to develop a real energy policy, reverse our coming Social Security deficit, assemble a lasting coalition to deal with Afghanistan and Iraq, maybe even get a national health care program — been used to build so little. That is what historians will note most about Mr. Bush’s tenure — the sheer wasted opportunity of it all.

“Gore, even without the presidency, used all the modern tools of communication, the Internet, video and globalization to reach out and galvanize a global movement,” Mr. Rothkopf said. “Bush took the greatest platform in the world and dug himself a policy grave.”

In sum, Al Gore has been justly honored for highlighting — like no one else — the climate challenge. But we still need a vision, a strategy, an army and a commander in the White House who can inspire young and old — not only to meet that challenge but to see in it the opportunity to make America a better, stronger and more productive nation. This is our crucible moment.

Technorati Tags: NewYorkTimes, ThomasFriedman, AlGore, PresidentBush

Everyone Is Thinking About Al Gore Tonight..How About 2008?

I am hoping that Al Gore wins the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday.  He is an amazing and far sighted American.

Gore, who has urged action to slow climate warming with his book and Oscar-winning documentary film “An Inconvenient Truth,” could win alone, or share the award with the U.N. climate panel.  Every educated person understands the problem we face, and the fact that we are all responsible for the warming of the planet.  Gore has led the effort with style, grace, and patience for many years to get all of us up to speed on making important changes. 

It looks like Friday Al Gore will make our nation very proud.  Just as Jimmy Carter did a few years ago by winning the same award.  Two great Americans.

But what comes afterwards?

Readers of the New York Times this week saw the full paid ad paid for by the draft Gore 2008 Committee.  The letter was blunt and to the point.

“You say you have fallen out of love with politics, and you have every reason to feel that way.  But we know you have not fallen out of love with your country. And your country needs you now — as do your party and the planet you are fighting so hard to save.”

With the expected Nobel Peace Prize will there now be another reason for Al Gore to consider the White House in 2008?

This blogger would not be unhappy to see him enter the race.

After all, he already won it once.

Technorati Tags: AlGore, NobelPeacePrize, Election2008