I am not the only one who finds Mitt Romney a fraud and contrived in his race for the White House. All of his fellow GOP presidential contenders feel the same way. After the Saturday night debate on ABC it is clear how the folks who have had to compete with him feel. OUCH! The voters are also weighing in on the slickness and flip-flopping on every issue he talks about, and find there is no firewall that Romney has as his final set of principles. His only position that does not change is his conviction about his Mormon faith, and that is not of interest to most Americans. After all, the issue is not if Mitt Romney gets his own planet to rule after death, it is about who can govern best starting in 2009.
John McCain has retooled his campaign after the summer of angst in 2007 that almost ended his final run for the White House. But in the climate where the GOP search is on for a real possible winner for the Republicans in November 2008, the Arizona Republican is looking better and better. The poll numbers for his efforts are paying off, and McCain’s mojo has returned.
On December 19, 2007 I wrote the following.
John McCain has one shot to reclaim his position in the GOP. That is in New Hampshire. If he can win a convincing number of voters to his campaign he can march onwards and still be the nominee in 2008. I still think he has the greatest chance with the independents of New Hampshire even though they are very anti-war.
I think the huge question is which primary contest does the independent voters in New Hampshire take their votes. If they find the Barack Obama race with Hillary Clinton more appealing McCain will suffer. I think however there is plenty of independent support to lift McCain over the top.
Therefore I predict the final results for the New Hampshire Republican Primary. I give only three percentages.
John McCain 36%
Mitt Romney 29%
Rudy Giuliani
Ron Paul 11%
Fred Thompson
Mike Huckabee
I think that Hillary Clinton shows some progress in her campaign style by starting to actually fight for the nomination. No one wants to see a candidate take the primary process for granted, or have a candidate feel that the nomination is deserved. So the steel that she demonstrated during the Saturday night debate is not all bad, in spite of what many pundits are saying. But I feel that she is in trouble for being the insider candidate in a time when the public mood seems to be in favor of a total reversal of the Bush years. Too many feel that she is more inclined to political deals than reversing the policies that need changing. From a strategic point of view she has had no time to change tactics to the degree required after the Iowa caucuses in order to win in New Hampshire. (I repeat from past posts that I still predict she wins the nomination.)
My bold prediction is that John Edwards makes a stronger showing than the polls show in New Hampshire. Edwards had a dynamic and powerful debate performance on Saturday night. While I do not think debates are that significant in general to a primary, there is such huge coverage and national interest that he gets extra mileage from it. His grittiness will hit a mark in New Hampshire. And he needs it. If he does not come in second place I do not see how his campaign endures in a real way.
My predictions for the Democratic New Hampshire primary are as follows. I give only two percentages.
Barack Obama 36%
John Edwards
Hillary Clinton
Bill Richardson 4%
Dennis Kucinich (gasp)
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