How Badly Does Hillary Clinton Want Campaign Debts Paid?

Why Hillary Clinton stays in the race for the Democratic nomination is just as interesting as how she will exit, and how she will pay off her staggering debts.  But the latter point is getting more attention now after an article appeared in US News And World Report.  And then the question is raised, does she even care about the money?

What I do not want to see happen is for any of the money that was raised by the small donors for Barack Obama go to pay for her failed bid for the White House.  In the discussions that are clearly going on behind the scenes, I trust that no such arrangement by the Obama campaign will take place.  While helping another candidate with debts is nothing new, those who gave small amounts to Obama did so for HIS race.  Any deal that does not meet the smell test would ill-serve him as he seeks funds for the fall campaign.

Experts disagree on whether or not Clinton will actually stick in the fight until the Democratic National Convention in August. But the date looms large for another reason—at least, if she hopes to recoup any of the millions she has sunk into the campaign. Thanks to a little-known provision in 2002’s McCain-Feingold campaign-finance reform bill, a campaign must repay the loan to a candidate before Election Day. In this case, that’s the nominating convention. After the election has passed, a bankrupt campaign is limited to gathering just $250,000 from contributors, which means that modest sum is all it can give back to a candidate. In short, Clinton stands to lose $11,150,000. “If she wants to be repaid, she’d have to move on that between now and the national convention,” says former Federal Election Commission chairman Michael Toner. “Otherwise, it just becomes another contribution.” The campaign, meanwhile, has other debts to consider as well. According to her latest FEC filing, the Hillary Clinton for President campaign committee owes millions to vendors, including more than $4.5 million to Penn, Schoen & Berland Associates, the consulting firm of her former chief strategist Mark Penn.

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That adds another wrinkle to her decision to stay in the race. Time is running out to pay off friends, allies, and vendors. Plus, by all accounts, Clinton’s most ardent supporters are tapped out, either unwilling or unable by law to donate any more. If she’s going to continue competing, she has to ask herself how many more millions she’s willing to spend in a quest many describe as increasingly quixotic. In short, how much does she care about the money? Politics guru Larry Sabato at the University of Virginia figures not much; after all, the Clintons earned $109 million since leaving the White House. “It’s like Michael Bloomberg spending a billion. Would he miss it? Is she going to miss $10 million? There’s only so much you can spend yourself anyway.”

Technorati Tags: HillaryClinton, Democrats, Election08, USNewsAndWorldReport, Campaigns

Zimbabwe: “Prepare To Be A War Correspondent”

The sentence jumped off the newspaper page at me today.  “Prepare To Be A War Correspondent.”

It was a brutal reminder that the situation in Zimbabwe is a tinderbox following the elections where President Robert Mugabe was defeated.  His attempts, however,  to hold onto power, and even drag the nation into chaos and bloodshed is not a shocker for anyone who has followed his chaotic and wretched time as leader.

The party of Mugabe is threatening the nation into supporting him in a runoff election.  Many however do not see as necessary another election, given the fraud that took place a month ago when voters cast their ballots to end the monstrous regime of Mugabe.

If voters fail to return Mr. Mugabe to office, the Politburo member told a Zimbabwean journalist working with The New York Times, “Prepare to be a war correspondent.”

The political impasse seems likely to persist for months. ZANU-PF and the opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, have challenged the election results in more than 50 parliamentary districts, the state-owned newspaper, The Herald, reported Wednesday. Those challenges, which are supposed to be resolved in six months, could overturn the opposition’s newly won control of the lower house of Parliament.

The ruling party, the military and their irregular forces — youth militias and veterans of the liberation struggle against white rule — have for weeks been threatening, arresting and beating those they see as threats, including journalists, election monitors and even people who had simply voted for the opposition.

But the widening net of intimidation now appears to be taking a toll on children too, further fraying a society enduring a precipitous economic collapse.

Services that would normally help tens of thousands of orphans each month — including health care, clean water, sports and social clubs — are now being restricted because of the political violence in large areas of the country.

“Zimbabwe’s children are already suffering on multiple fronts,” said James Elder, a spokesman for Unicef. “To see their situation further deteriorate through violence or intimidation that prevents people reaching them is unacceptable.”

Other aid workers say they have been warned by government officials to suspend their operations, lest they be seen as meddling in the nation’s affairs. Teachers, who served as nonpartisan supervisors at polling stations, have been systematically singled out, with 496 questioned by the police, 133 assaulted by thugs and 123 charged with election fraud, according to the Progressive Teachers Union of Zimbabwe. Teachers who worked for the opposition also said they had been attacked.

An unsigned editorial in Saturday’s issue of The Herald singled out teachers as part of an elaborate British- and American-financed plot to rig the election and get rid of Mr. Mugabe.

The editorial described the teachers as having been trained in South Africa and by the National Democratic Institute, a nonprofit group based in Washington whose chairman is Madeleine K. Albright, the former American secretary of state. It said the teachers were fleeing “to avoid the long arm of the law.”

 

Technorati Tags: Zimbabwe, RobertMugabe, Africa, NewYorkTimes

What Is A “Cable-News Lobster Shift”?

I think I know a fair amount about lobsters given that James grew up in Maine.  I know that the only real way to eat them is steamed with tons of butter.  And I know the best napkin for such occasions is a dish towel, and at times a hammer might even be required for the dinner table. 

But when I read today in a column concerning the pundits and reporters covering the Democratic presidential nomination, which included a phrase about the “cable-news lobster shift “ of late night election coverage, I was perplexed.  Even James was unsure what the writer meant.

The tone of finality could be heard on the cable-news lobster shift that is now a regular feature of late election nights. “I think there’s an increasing presumption tonight that Obama’s going to be the nominee,” Chris Wallace, the Fox News host, said to Karl Rove, President Bush’s longtime political guru, who is now a Fox analyst. David Gergen, an adviser to several presidents, including Bill Clinton, said on CNN after 1 a.m., “I think the Clinton people know the game is almost up.”

So I toss this question out to my growing readership, who I view as savvy and smart.  What is a  lobster shift?  And why is it so named?

Technorati Tags: Lobster, Maine, Election08, DemocraticPrimaries, Media,

The Morning After The Primaries Proves America Is The Winner

It does not matter this morning if you are a Republican or a Democrat.  We all can agree on one thing.  It matters not if you supported Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination.  We all can agree on one thing. 

There was a mood of excitement Tuesday night among the TV pundits and anchors as the hours drifted along, well after the sun had set.  As midnight approached votes were still being counted in Lake County, Indiana, causing the outcome to still be in doubt.   The audience felt the excitement as well, regardless of whether one supported Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama.  The phrase ‘barn-burner of an election’ has meaning this morning, as the primaries last night again proved that politics can be exciting and unpredictable.  In spite of all the polls and punditry it still comes down to the will of the voters as reflected in the tabulation of the ballots.  No matter how long it takes the final result comes as the voters dictate. It all proves that our political process, despite flaws such as too much money polluting the outcome, does in fact work.  It works because so many Americans are engaged in the process and want a better country.

More important than which candidate won, is the fact that the election process this year has generated so many energized voters and hopeful Americans.  We often think of the political process as unwieldy and out of control, beyond the ability of one person to make a difference.  But this year as more states have played a pivotal role in the nominating process, the feeling that the civics lessons of our youth came to life has made many aware of the vital role they play in our democracy. 

The desire of voters to hear and see the candidates, and better understand the positions they have on the issues is remarkable to witness.  The huge audiences that turn out to see the candidates in large arenas are a powerful sight to behold.   But the small towns that never have witnessed a candidate in their community and suddenly have one shaking hands in the town square can only bring a smile to even the most cynical in our nation.  The political process works, and our democracy still can create the understanding within the citizenry about the notion of individual responsibility that so many have taken to heart this year.

This election season has produced the ultimate reality TV show.  Tuesday night’s excitement was just the latest episode.  America can be proud.

Technorati Tags: BarackObama, HillaryClinton, Elections, Democracy, Media

MSNBC And New York Times In Joint Effort During Campaign

Always room for more solid analysis.

The Timesand MSNBC are joining forces for a new cable show. Tuesday was the debut of The New York Times Special Primary Edition, a new political show hosted by John Harwood where Times-journos will handicap the election. From a Timesmemo, it appears these shows will appear as specials–that is, they won’t run every week, but whenever MSNBC and the paper choose to do it.

Technorati Tags: MSNBC, NewYorkTimes, Elections, Election08

HILLARY’S ‘DOUBLE DREAM’ DASHED: EXITS SHOW EASY OBAMA WIN IN NC

Here come the early exit polls results.

WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY

The economy was on voters’ minds in Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. Two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in Indiana and nearly as many in North Carolina said the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. That’s more than have said so in 28 previous competitive Democratic primaries with exit polls this year.

Only about one in five in each state said Iraq was the top issue, and even fewer picked health care from a list of three issues.

Four in 10 Indiana Democratic voters said the current recession or economic slowdown has affected their family a great deal. Nearly as many said that in North Carolina.

CROSSOVER VOTING

Indiana’s Democratic primary was open to all voters. About one in five said they were independents and one in 10 identified themselves as Republican. North Carolina’s Democratic primary was open only to voters registered Democratic or unaffiliated; nearly one in five voters in that contest called themselves independents.

DEMOGRAPHICS:

The exit poll estimated blacks made up about a third of voters in the North Carolina Democratic primary, about one in seven in Indiana. More than half of voters in both states were women, which is typical for Democratic primaries. About one in seven voters in Indiana and slightly fewer in North Carolina were under age 30; about a quarter in North Carolina and somewhat fewer in Indiana were over age 65.

Voting so heavy in Marion County, Indiana that is resembles a general election.  Republicans turning out for Hillary Clinton!

Turnout already is looking less like a primary than a general election. Based on reports from precincts, she said turnout may surpass the November 2006 election, when one-third of Marion County voters showed up, but might not be as large as the 2004 election, when nearly 54 percent of registered voters took part in the contest pitting President George W. Bush against John Kerry.

Four years ago, less than one in five Marion County registered voters showed up for the primary.

Everyone who loves the political drama that is unfolding today has been waiting for the early exit polling data.  The news is always leaked at about 4:00 P.M. (CT) and is usually a good (not perfect) barometer of where we are headed as the polls close, and votes are counted. 

Earlier today there was news that internal numbers for Hillary Clinton show that she may face up to a 15% defeat in North Carolina.  Barack Obama will do very well there according to most polling data. 

Other polling shows a tighter race in Indiana, but with Clinton leading.

Hillary Clinton’s inner circle now fears a stinging defeat is likely in North Carolina.

The campaign now believes a 15 point loss, or more, would not be surprising. Her team will work hard throughout the day to lower all expectations in North Carolina.

Technorati Tags: HillaryClinton, BarackObama, Election08, Democrats, IndianaPrimary, NorthCarolinaPrimary, DrudgeReport

The Race For The Democratic Nomination

From The Economist

Technorati Tags: PoliticalCartoons, HillaryClinton, BarackObama, Election08, Democrats, JohnMcCain

Hillary Clinton Playing Politics Like a Republican

How long might it take for liberal Democrats to support Hillary Clinton if hell were to freeze over and she became the Democratic nominee?  After today it will be longer than yesterday.  There just is no end to the horse-rot that comes from Hillary Clinton or her campaign as she grasps for anything she can grab in her zeal to be president.

This morning, George Stephanopoulos began his televised interview with Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton by asking if she could name a single economist who supported her plan for a gas-tax suspension.

Mrs. Clinton did not. “I’m not going to put in my lot with economists,” she said on the ABC program “This Week.” A few moments later, she added, “Elite opinion is always on the side of doing things that really disadvantages the vast majority of Americans.”

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But like every other candidate, Mrs. Clinton has a team of economists behind her policy positions. Is she dismissing their work? And in the coming weeks, how far will she take her anti-elitist argument? After all, the race will likely end up in the hands of the superdelegates — many of whom are, by definition, the Democratic Party elite.

Hillary is even talking like President Bush and uttered the small-minded phrase “are they with us or against us’ in a speech about the oil problem in America. 

Clinton sent out a mailer this weekend attacking Obama on guns.  There is no level that she will not stoop in a Democratic primary to snatch a few votes.

Technorati Tags: HillaryClinton, BarackObama, Election, IndianaPrimary, NorthCarolinaPrimary, Election08, Democrats

Prediction For North Carolina, Indiana Democratic Presidential Primary

Each primary night this year we thought that the results would somehow move the Democratic nominating process to a point where the eventual nominee would be known.  Once again, for better or worse, depending on your point of view, we will not know where the nomination will fall on Tuesday night after the North Carolina and Indiana Democratic primaries are held.  If you are a political junkie such as myself, this election cycle is like eating chocolate brownies covered with raspberry sauce every day!   As a Democrat who understands the needs of the nation, I know the necessity of wrapping the process up, and having a party nominee that can win in November.  But we will not know the nominee on Tuesday night.  But since I am enjoying this campaign I thought I would add a few thoughts and early predictions for the May 6th contests.

In the nearly two weeks since the Pennsylvania primary if has been a series of tumultuous blows and counter-blows as the Barack Obama campaign was forced to deal with the remarks of Reverend Wright.  At a time when Hillary Clinton was capitalizing on a new found populist message regarding gas prices and a cozy relationship with the “bubba vote’, Obama was scrambling to tamp down the daily news stories over his former pastor.  He will have a full-blown interview on “Meet The Press” with Tim Russert Sunday morning, and will have a chance to round the rough edges off a hard week.  But the only way to blunt the hard news these past weeks is with convincing wins for Obama on Tuesday.  I do not see that in the cards.

It is imperative that Barack Obama score above the expectations in order to stop the hemorrhaging in the minds of the superdelegates about his nomination.  While North Carolina has long looked favorable for him, and still does, he must show that he has not lost ground by allowing Clinton to close the gap and come in with a close second.  Sadly I do not think that will happen.  Where Obama had enjoyed a double-digit lead over Clinton, he now has been reduced to the single numbers in some polls.

The real prize however is in Indiana where the once tight race has opened in Clinton’s favor. The key will be the blue-collar voters that seem more than willing to give the nod to Hillary “where is my gun and shot of whiskey” Clinton.  I may disagree with her on issues, but I do not discount her ability to morph into whatever the campaign requires.  That will prove handy to some extent if she is eventually the Democratic nominee.  However, that concession in no way speaks to the more principled stand and demeanor that I think most want, and need, from a president.  Clinton is seen in poll after poll to lack the integrity and truthfulness test.  In the end, should she become the nominee, after the war and economy are debated endlessly, this character issue will weigh on the mind of the voters and pose as her biggest problem.  McCain will use this flaw over and over again to his advantage, if Clinton were to be the nominee.

In Indiana I will be watching the number of Republicans who switch over to cast a ballot for Hillary Clinton, knowing that she is the weakest candidate to face John McCain.  Meanwhile independents are more likely to line up for Obama.  It seems that voters who are not Democrats could select the winner in Indiana.

I do not predict a sweep of the contests for either candidate.  If Clinton were to win both North Carolina and Indiana her rival Barack Obama would still have more delegates, and the struggle would continue as he fights to be the nominee.  I have long argued the eventual nominee will be the person leading with the most elected delegates.  The problem with Clinton doing well at the end of the nominating process is that the superdelegates are getting mighty nervous.  I do not discount the major news event that a sweep for Clinton would create, but I do not think superdelegates can overturn the will of the powerful forces that have made Obama all but the nominee, without a fissure so deep and wide in the party that the only outcome would be a GOP victory in November.  A Clinton sweep would be a blow to the Obama campaign, but not one that would necessarily prove to be the end for him.   (By this time some readers may think I never give Clinton a break….I actually like her but think her campaign style and tactics are slimy.)

However, if Obama were somehow to sweep the two states on Tuesday it would then be the end for Clinton’s White House dream.  If Obama could sweep after the two weeks he has endured, then a clear message so loud will have been sent that even the Clinton household would understand it.

So with all these thoughts and views what are my predictions?

I think that Obama wins by 6 % in North Carolina.

Clinton wins with 8 % in Indiana.  A more conservative and blue-collar crowd that has no ability to process the Obama phenomenon will prove to be Clinton’s gift. 

Technorati Tags: Predictions, NorthCarolinaPrimary, IndianaPrimary, BarackObama, HillaryClinton, Election08, Democrats, JohnMcCain

Open Letter To Barack Obama

An uncle of mine who cares about our nation, and the tone of our political discourse, wrote a letter to the Barack Obama campaign.  It struck me as one of the best stated short writings on this matter that I had read in some time, and as such post it here for my readers.

Dear Senator Obama,

 

        This is TO AFFIRM my belief in you at a point when so many are attacking and TO BEG you to avoid any Faustian deals to get elected.  Your dreams and integrity have won the support of many Americans.  To lower your standard to expediency would be to sell your soul.

 

        I believe you would not have stayed 20 years at your church if you truly disavow Jeremiah Wright.  I see him quite like the Old Testament prophets (and the Lord himself who quarreled only with the religious establishment).

 

        The longer I live (I’m 70) the more I believe the “average” American Christian is 95% American and 5% Christian–hardly loving God “with all our heart, soul, mind and strength and our neighbor as ourselves”.  I suspect most patriotic Americans would have supported Ceaser in Jesus’ time.

 

        Your commitment to practice justice and care has been blessed.  This stance is unusual in a climate of political expediency.

       

        I want the original Obama to get elected. He is the only one on the horizon who can inspire Americans to work together as George Bush promised in 2000.  I hope, if I have cause to write again, that I can address you as “Mr. President”.  May God bless you and help you keep faith.

 

Sincerely,

Technorati Tags: BarackObama, Election08, Democrats, Ethics

The Problem Is Not With Reverend Wright, But With Republican Operatives

I have argued here on this blog that the type of political tactics which allows for the Reverend Wright matter to dominate the whole of America is troubling.  Barack Obama suffers as the result of the GOP working over-time to demonize him, the one candidate they fear most in the fall campaign.

Now comes a well written national article that adds on to that theme.  THIS IS A MUST READ!

Not all of what Wright says is comforting.

His views are not universally appealing, nor are they or should they be seen as unassailable.

But, for the most part, they are well much within the mainstream of American religious and political discourse.

The problem is not Jeremiah Wright.

The problem is a contemporary political culture that has come to rely on character assassination as an easy tool for reversing electoral misfortune — and a media that willingly invites manipulation.

Let’s not forget how Wright became an issue in the 2008 presidential race. Republican operatives, fretful about their party’s political fortunes, decided that the only way to weaken the candidacy of Wright’s longtime parishioner, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, was by suggesting the Democratic presidential front-runner was in the sway of an anti-American radical.

That end was achieved by separating out from long and thoughtful sermons regarding matters biblical and political seemingly offensive phrases and then inviting the Grand Old Party’s media echo chamber to repeat the sound bites until they became conventional “wisdom.”

This is a classic guilt-by-association maneuver, played out so aggressively in the current circumstance that it would make Joe McCarthy blush. But it has worked, at least in part because people of good faith have not taken the time to assess and appropriately answer the charge that Obama’s connection to Wright confirms the candidate to be either a closet radical or, worse yet, a dupe of some free-floating, ill-defined but still frightful fringe.

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Wright can be unsettling, thought-provoking, often right and sometimes wrong. But he is neither anti-American nor unpatriotic.

In more ways than Republican and now Democratic critics seem prepared to admit, Wright is the embodiment of an American religious and political tradition of challenging the country’s sins while calling it to the higher ground that extends from the founding of the republic. No less a figure than Thomas Jefferson — who constructed that wall of separation between church and state but who worried a good deal about questions of the divine — worried openly about the retribution that would befall a nation that permitted slavery.

“The whole commerce between master and slave is a perpetual exercise of the most boisterous passions, the most unremitting despotism on the one part, and degrading submissions on the other,” wrote Jefferson in 1781’s Notes on the State of Virginia, where he asked, “(Can) the liberties of a nation be thought secure when we have removed their only firm basis, a conviction in the minds of the people that these liberties are the gift of God? That they are not to be violated but with his wrath? Indeed I tremble for my country when I reflect that God is just: that his justice cannot sleep forever.”

The wrath of God brought down on a country that permits slavery? A nation damned by its original sin? God damn America?

America has been blessed from its beginnings by champions of liberty, by abolitionists and civil rights marchers, by suffragists and union organizers, by anti-imperialists like Mark Twain and challengers of the military-industrial complex like Dwight Eisenhower. Necessarily, these patriots have said some tough things about American leaders and policies. They have acknowledged flaws that are self-evident. Yet, they have not done so out of hatred. Rather, they have loved America sufficiently to believe it can be as good and as just as figures so diverse and yet in some very important ways so similar as Thomas Jefferson and Jeremiah Wright have taught us.

Technorati Tags: BarackObama, HillaryClinton, Election08, Democrats, ReverendWright

Did Barack Obama Do The Right Thing By Denouncing Reverend Wright?

One can understand the political needs that Barack Obama faces as he runs for the Democratic Party nomination, while at the same time understanding the desire of Reverend Wright to publicly defend himself.  The right-wing use of Wright’s comments, often out of context, is not a new tactic for the GOP.  Contortions and confusion is a game plan they use often.  Sadly it works.

As CNN reports Obama made it clear today that he was ”outraged” with Reverend Wright over comments made in the past couple of days.

“I have been a member of Trinity Church since 1992. I have known Rev. Wright for almost 20 years,” he said at a news conference in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. “The person I saw yesterday is not the person I met 20 years ago.”

What particularly angered me was his suggestion somehow that my previous denunciation of his remarks were somehow political posturing,” Obama said, adding that Wright had shown “little regard for me” and seemed more concerned with “taking center stage.”

I cannot prevent him from making these remarks,” but “when I say I find these comments appalling, I mean it. It contradicts what I’m about and who I am. … It is completely opposed to what I stand for and where I want to take this country.”

In a break with previous comments, Obama focused his criticism on Wright the man, and not simply his remarks.

Obama had at the center of his campaign the idea that the old ways of ‘doing’ politics was not in the best interest of the national needs.  Many agreed and cheered him on.   More importantly they voted in large numbers for him.  When confronted with the Wright matter I had hoped that Obama would speak to the larger themes of not allowing the conservative’s rant on Wright, which was amplified by the media, to deflect from the larger issues, and thereby drive the race for the White House.  By denouncing his pastor in the fashion that he did, Obama gave in to the basic premise that the conservatives had laid out when they started their constant barrage of Wright.  The GOP playbook worked again.  And the public gets the shaft.

What Obama should have done is attack this style of campaigning by the Republicans.  These types of political attacks on Barack Obama about his pastor are aimed at playing politics with the lowest common denominators.  Again.  Will the Wright matter effect the price of gasoline or improve health care coverage for working Americans?

The GOP has a bloody war on their hands and an economy that has soured into a recession.  So they needed to have a diversion that affects the strongest person who could kick their ass in November. 

Technorati Tags: BarackObama, ReverendWright, CNN, Election08