The quest for the White House in 2008 is well underway with candidates forming exploratory committees, stockpiling cash, and hiring the brightest political operatives in the business. In fact, the race is so far ahead of where we normally are at this time that one candidate, Senator Bayh of Indiana, not only took the initial steps towards a campaign, but has already withdrew from the race, correctly understanding he was more a potential V.P. pick than a presidential nominee for 2008.
While there is plenty of action to follow in the wide-open presidential race in the months to come as both Democrats and Republicans scramble for attention and money, I really think the best story to follow in 2007 will be President Bush. Really. Since being re-elected in 2004 Bush’s poll numbers have continually eroded due to his foreign policy decisions, and the erosion of our civil rights. All national polling strongly proves that the pitfalls produced as a result of the Bush Administration’s actions over the last six years demand corrections. The question I have, and what I will be watching during this coming year, is whether Bush has the ability to extricate himself from his self-inflicted damage?
From the war in Iraq where a military ‘victory’ is now long past possible, to his war on the U.S. Constitution, the President has many issues he can work on, and correct in 2007, if he has a desire to make a change. Bush could just embrace the noble ideas that were found in the Magna Carta, and uphold the rights of those accused of crimes in this country, and his critics would have to admit an earthquake was taking place within George Bush. I admit it very sad that we would even need to remind any President about the need for fair jury trials, having lawyers for the accused, and a full understanding of what charges were pending against the accused. But such is the state of the American Presidency that today any movement towards those enlightened ideas would actually be news worthy.
As one who enjoys watching how any President leads the nation, and positions himself for the history books, I am going to be most interested this coming year in what Bush does, and how he communicates to a very nervous and anxious nation. The fact that Bush actually won the 2004 race proves he is an effective politician. In 2007 I will be watching to see if he is able to shift his footing politically, and succeed with changing those policies that today are collapsing all around him. Can he pivot his administration in a new direction through action and words, demonstrating an understanding for the need of a workable foreign policy? Can he start to revive his poll numbers? Can he still play to the history books? Will Congress treat Bush like a lame duck President, or respect any newfound Presidential luster should it emerge? How far will his fellow Republicans distance themselves from an Administration that can’t right the ship of state?
Needless to say it is a daunting task for Bush, the former head cheerleader of an all boys high school. Eighty percent of the most notable historians when polled in early 2004 for the History News Network already then viewed the Bush Presidency as a failure. Recent polls of historians in the past weeks have again found Bush being relegated with the likes of Andrew Johnson and Warren Harding. While it is true that decades must pass before one can see history from a more proper perspective and evaluate the effects of any President, the dire facts today from the Middle East, to the red ink in Washington, paint a legacy that does not bode well for Bush.
Ronald Reagan knew that in his final term he needed to be guided by the larger themes that would dominate the history books. His bluster was blunted with more stable policy choices as evidenced by his work with the Soviet Union, along with the firm guidance of his wife, Nancy Reagan. If Bush has any friends among his close advisers they will urge a sea change in direction, and a total removal of the arrogance that has prevailed for far too long in this Administration. Laura would be wise to follow Nancy’s lead and use firmness in counseling her husband.
All the Presidential contenders will create interesting stories in 2007 but the real action will still take place, as it always does, with the current residence of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
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