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“FiveThirtyEight” Predicts Al Franken To Win By 27 Votes

November 24, 2008

Millions of political junkies  have been quite taken by the site “FiveThirtyEight” this year.  It is one of my daily ‘first reads’.  There truly has never been a number crunching site such as this before.   And as we know the track record of this site is most remarkable for its specificity.  Well let see what the latest post says about the Minnesota recount for U.S. Senate…..

I will let you read the whole post as it is long and a mite complicated, but this is the main thought.

Now, we can attempt to solve this equation at the statewide level. When we plug in a tof .499956 — Franken was picked on just slightly very less than half of the ballots during the initial count — we get a value for franken_netof .837. That is, Franken will gain a net of .837 votes for every 10,000 cast. With a total of 2,885,555 ballots having been recorded in the initial count, this works out to a projected gain of 242votes for Franken statewide. Since Norm Coleman led by 215 votes in the initial count, this suggests that Franken will win by 27 votes once the recount process is complete (including specifically the adjudication of all challenged ballots).

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