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How Budget Deal Needs To Be Marshalled Through Congress

July 11, 2011

Here are some of the considerations that the main players have to contend with when crafting any budget package to insure an increase in the debt ceiling.  It might just be easier to place all of Congress on ritalin.

The basic whipping formula is that the deal will only be enacted if it gets a majority of the Republican majority in the House and a majority of the Democratic majority in
the Senate. The House remains the much tougher sell, because perhaps a third of
the GOP caucus will vote against almost anything at this point — either on the
grounds that a mid-sized deal is too timid or that the inevitable revenue-raiser
will be too much. And so one very important logistical consideration is allowing
time for the package to be rejected on its first pass through the House (which
will almost certainly vote first), so that the leadership can have time to
fine-tune it in search of the votes needed to win on the second try — and to be
aided, in a perverse sort of way, by a lawmaker-scaring swoon by the markets if
the bill loses the first time. (The model here: the two tries it took to get the
TARP package passed in 2008.)

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