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Predictions For 2012 Republican Iowa Caucus On January 3rd

December 28, 2011

Let the Prediction Season begin for Election 2012!

What a year this has been for the Republicans.

First there was a slew of candidates that poured out of the clown car, and frankly not even the most strident conservative could have been proud of the antics that took place.  Every few weeks there was another leader of the pack given the weaknesses of the announced candidates.  Polling numbers are meaningless as the voters are more undecided than firm for any candidate.

Which bring us to Iowa, the first match-up of the nominating process.

There is no way to know for sure what will happen given that a cold snap could keep caucus-goers at home, or some undefined calculation on the morning of the caucuses could alter how people view a candidate.

Given all that I am wading in early, and making my predictions for next Tuesday night.

I have long felt that Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee.  My feeling in this regard is based on money, organization, and a consistent way Romney has run his campaign.  (Consistency on the issues is another matter.)   Romney has been a very impressive candidate, and much improved from 4 years ago.

When Romney decided to challenge his opponents in Iowa he did so with precision tactics, with the goal not to come in second, but to win.  There is something inevitable about his campaign, and that must be seen even by his Republican opponents. 

In addition, as I have stated over and over the establishment wing of the GOP  is not going to throw their chances of winning in 2012 away with Tea Party madness.    (The Tea Party may be the last to recognize this fact.)  I suspect many Iowa caucus-goers vote for a winner, and not for more base motives.

I have also felt that in places like Iowa there is room for a clean-cut campaign.  One that lifts the hopes of voters, rather than merely blasting an opponent.  This year that means Rick Santorum who has staked out his claim for the evangelical vote with non-stop visits, and all-out begging will make an impression on caucus night. Voters want something more than nasty ads, and the former senator has delivered in that regard, and will benefit as a result.

Ron Paul is the stranger in the Republican tent, in that he does not really belong there given what constitutes GOP thinking at this time.  There are however many cult-like followers of Paul, in spite of his anti-gay and racist leanings, which will provide for a night of political intrigue in Iowa.  The question is how many of his groupies leave their basements and trek to the local caucus site.  I suggest not as many as the polls suggest. 

So here is how I see the final results when the Iowa caucuses come to a close on January 3rd.

Romney (by 4 points)

Santorum ( by 2 points over Paul)



Gingrich (this may be my most risky placement…but I am betting his implosion only gains steam in the final days)

Bachmann ( Now go away….)

  1. john augustus permalink
    January 3, 2012 9:42 PM

    I strongly predict that Santorum will win the Iowa cacus… the end Romney will the GOP nomination…..Paul will become a 3rd candidate…..Obama will win a 2nd term with a mandate.

  2. Linda Lea permalink
    January 2, 2012 10:44 PM

    Don’t bet your Navy ship on Ron Paul. He’s going nowhere fast!! The Libertarian will implode shortly!! Ron Paul’s nutty statements (when he forgets to take his medication) will never allow him to be elected as President of the U.S. Keep your day job with predictions like that!!!!!!!!!!!!Lol

  3. Craig permalink
    January 2, 2012 7:20 AM

    FINAL POLL: Romney 24% Paul 22% Santorum 15% Gingrich 12%…
    Gingrich: Romney would buy White House if he could…
    Santorum says he would bomb Iran nuclear sites…
    Bachmann plays gender card as vote nears…
    Confident Paul chills in Texas…

    Go Big Mitt!!


  4. Helen permalink
    December 31, 2011 12:54 AM

    I hope Michele does well. And Santorum. It’d be good to see a clear-headed, straight-shooting, scandal-less – and inspirational – Leader rise. Let’s hope the Iowans listen to their inner voice.

  5. Jim H permalink
    December 30, 2011 9:45 AM

    Just left my basement. No wait, sitting at my computer (at breaktime) at the US Navy base where I work with many other Ron Paul supporters laughing at your predictions. Guess you do not realize what the real unemployment rate is, how much we take from poor people here to give rich Dictators overseas, how much of the 16 trillion (GAO audit, google it, TARP was nothing) was given to banks overseas etc.
    We predict a Ron Paul win in Iowa!
    We will soon see.

  6. Craig permalink
    December 29, 2011 9:32 AM

    “Polling numbers are meaningless as the voters are more undecided than firm for any candidate.”

    How true. However the one factor that will come out the National Republician Caucusing efforts is a desire to make President Obama a one term president. And I don’t think it matters too much who the canidate is. Could be Romnley I agree with dekeriver.


  7. Alex Wagner permalink
    December 29, 2011 12:52 AM

    What will be interesting is whether or not Ron Paul decides to be Gary Johnson’s running mate on the libertarian ticket (or, for that matter, if Johnson would defer to Paul and take the VP slot himself.)

    That could certainly throw a wrench into things. A Johnson/Paul ticket would take votes away mostly from Republicans, although it would also take some votes away from Obama as well. But the polling data right now shows that their presence should make things easier for Obama, all things considered.

    This could be the year that the Republicans get to deal with a “Nader” type campaign on their side.

  8. EddyInAmes permalink
    December 28, 2011 7:59 PM

    I predict Santorum is going to shine!

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