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Labor Day And Presidential Campaigns

September 7, 2015

Labor Day is an important date when talking about presidential politics.  One year from now there will be a rush of excitement as the fall campaign for Election 2016 will be underway.  But even this Labor Day is one that presses us to be mindful that much is taking place, especially given the upside-down way this summer has been spent talking about Donald Trump.

Jeb Bush is still the candidate with the money and infrastructure needed to win the Republican nomination.  I have stated that from the start, and hold to that view.  While I have also said that Ohio Governor John Kasich is a most serious candidate and also one that has potential (especially when compared against the like of Scott Walker) he needs to perform in a major way at the next debate to take that next leg up in the race.  I do not count him out as I do Walker, but when compared with all that Bush has put in place there is so much organizing work to do and a short time to do it.

But there is news from the Democratic front too.  While I think Hillary Clinton gets the party nomination, and would be a most tough fall campaigner, there are reasons to be concerned about the perceptions that many voters have about her.  Today polls show in New Hampshire Senator Bernie Sanders gets 41% of Democratic voters, while Clinton gets 32% and Vice-President Joe Biden gets 16%.   But without Biden the poll shows Sanders’ lead over Clinton increases to 11 points, 49 percent to 38 percent.

There is no way Clinton can be calm about such polling.

Meanwhile in Iowa Clinton maintains her previous advantage over Sanders but it needs to be noted that her lead has declined from 24 points in July (49% to 25 %) to 11 points (38% to 27%) while Biden sits at 20%.

There is clearly a very credible way for Clinton to lose both of these early states and run the delegate count up in the south.  But needing to win in such a way will make for queasy weeks for Clinton and the party.

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