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New Hampshire Primary Predictions 2016

February 7, 2016

If it felt like flying by the seat of my pants when placing Iowa Caucus predictions into print it feels like I am stark naked in front a church when placing these thoughts about New Hampshire into this blog post. It should be noted I was clearly in the ballpark and seated behind the batter with last week’s predictions. Time will tell where I land with these.   (Writing them on a Sunday Night means lots can happen to shape last minute voters come Tuesday.  Having said that here we go with my usual reminder, please no wagering.)

First up some summations with a listing of how I view the results at the end of this post.

Prior to Saturday night’s Republican debate it was my thought that at least two of the establishment candidates would end their campaigns after Tuesday. Now it seems to me that only Chris Christie will have to stop his barnstorming after what I feel will be a poor showing in the primary. Needless to say he had a mostly good debate that resulted in causing panic and concerns for at least one candidate, Marco Rubio.

There is no way to put enough spin and polish on Marco Rubio to remove the lack of awareness that seems to pour from him in equal parts to his sweat. How he was not able to hear what he was saying on the debate stage means one of two things.  Perhaps both.  1) He was over-rehearsed and not in control of his own messaging or, 2) is not the A-rated candidate that some wish him to be. It should be noted, again, I have him as a most viable vice-presidential pick but not ready for a prime time presidential contender.

The most solid performance at this past weekend’s debate, and the candidate who has wowed newspaper editors across The Granite State, is John Kasich. He has a personality that is so opposite Donald Trump’s that it almost leaps up and asks to be humbly considered for the highest office in the land.  Kasich blends and connects so well with the voters.  He has a clear conservative perspective but delivers views with moderate inflections that places him apart from the angry nature of the red-meat candidates.

Since Jeb Bush also has much to offer his party, but has been unable to move the needle to any noticeable extent, it seems logical to suspect that voters are moving to seek another candidate who can reach the middle part of the GOP and win the White House this year.

Therefore I predict the news coming out of New Hampshire Tuesday will be two-fold.

The first news story will be why, even though Trump will place first, did he not have a better showing? I do not think Trump will secure the percentage that every poll suggests he will. I fall back on the rationale that those who seek entertainment at his rallies are not necessarily voters. There is also a time to be serious about electing a leader, and this is the time when voters sober up and think long-term. When doing so Trump’s support softens. Though he wins it will be scored as a loss.    The media narrative will drive this forward based on the facts.

The other major news story coming out of this primary will be the impressive demonstration of Kasich power as he plows his way to second place. If we thought the week between Iowa and New Hampshire was fun–and Lord knows it has been!– wait to see the way we bounce about in the ride to the balloting in South Carolina.   With Ted Cruz, Bush, and Rubio all feeling some reason for hope–though it may be delusional hope–there is nothing to do but watch it unfold.

On the Democratic side there is going to be a very hard knock for Hillary Clinton even though the final result will be a great deal closer than once feared. In Clinton’s match-up with Berne Sanders she will lose by 7%.  She will stand  with spirit despite the loss and head to more solid electoral states.  Bernie’s best night of 2016 will be over once the plane takes off from New Hampshire.

For the GOP……

Trump—23%

Kasich—19%

(For the remainder I only list them in how I believe they will finish.)

Rubio

Bush

Cruz

Christie

Carly

Carson

Have fun watching the results on Tuesday!!

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