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More Proof Donald Trump And Ted Cruz Hurting Republican Election Chances

April 14, 2016

Mo matter how the GOP turns it looks bad.  The latest evidence of that is from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Both Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are toxic for the general election.  Both would lose the White House to Hillary Clinton.  But what also might happen is turn down ballot races into real contests where a heavy Democratic turnout along with anti-Trump and anti-Cruz voters will upset some Republicans.

This week we’re making 14 House rating changes, with all but one of them favoring the Democrats. This has been a common theme for us in recent weeks. Two weeks ago, we offered ratings of a potential Hillary Clinton-versus-Donald Trump presidential race, which tilted the competitive Electoral College states toward the Democrats. Last week, we moved six Senate races and two gubernatorial races toward the Democrats. This is mostly because of the increasingly likely odds of the GOP nominating Trump or Cruz for president.

However, these House changes do not represent a massive upgrade of Democratic odds for taking the House. Many of them simply take some already unlikely targets for Republicans off our list of competitive races, and they don’t change the overall House prospects all that much.

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