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First General Battleground Election Map

May 6, 2016

Now we start to get serious about where the votes need to come from to get the needed electoral college votes.

battlegroundmap_e47d6fdeed646ab940e50fbbdb9a6815.nbcnews-ux-600-480.jpg

Likely Dem: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, ME (3 EVs), MD, MA, MN, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (186 electoral votes)

Lean Dem: ME (1EV), MI, NV, NJ, PA, WI (67)

Tossup: CO, FL, IA, NE (1 EV), NH, NC, OH, VA (95)

Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MS, MO, MT (46)

Likely GOP: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN KS, KY, LA, NE (4 EVs), ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (144)

That map gives Clinton and the Democrats a 253-190 edge in electoral votes, with 95 in the tossup column. And here’s why Dems have the advantage: They surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency by just winning one of Florida or Ohio. Or a combination of Colorado and Virginia. Some notes here: We put former battleground New Mexico in Likely Dem since it’s overwhelmingly Latino; Trump’s Rust Belt targets are in the Lean Dem column (MI, PA, WI); Clinton’s expanded targets are in Lean GOP (AZ, GA); we put Mississippi in Lean GOP due to its sizable African-American population; and Nebraska’s Omaha congressional district is in Tossup. One other thing: Our Tossup designations are very conservative; it’s where we think things *could* be later this summer. But right now, there are more polls showing Clinton ahead in these states than ones with Trump leading.

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