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First General Battleground Election Map

May 6, 2016

Now we start to get serious about where the votes need to come from to get the needed electoral college votes.


Likely Dem: CA, CT, DC, DE, HI, IL, ME (3 EVs), MD, MA, MN, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (186 electoral votes)

Lean Dem: ME (1EV), MI, NV, NJ, PA, WI (67)

Tossup: CO, FL, IA, NE (1 EV), NH, NC, OH, VA (95)

Lean GOP: AZ, GA, MS, MO, MT (46)

Likely GOP: AL, AK, AR, ID, IN KS, KY, LA, NE (4 EVs), ND, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (144)

That map gives Clinton and the Democrats a 253-190 edge in electoral votes, with 95 in the tossup column. And here’s why Dems have the advantage: They surpass the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency by just winning one of Florida or Ohio. Or a combination of Colorado and Virginia. Some notes here: We put former battleground New Mexico in Likely Dem since it’s overwhelmingly Latino; Trump’s Rust Belt targets are in the Lean Dem column (MI, PA, WI); Clinton’s expanded targets are in Lean GOP (AZ, GA); we put Mississippi in Lean GOP due to its sizable African-American population; and Nebraska’s Omaha congressional district is in Tossup. One other thing: Our Tossup designations are very conservative; it’s where we think things *could* be later this summer. But right now, there are more polls showing Clinton ahead in these states than ones with Trump leading.

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