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Now It Is All About The Electoral College And How Clinton Prevails

July 30, 2016

The mapping out of how Hillary Clinton wins is now underway in full throttle.  And one of the keys is Pennsylvania, as reported in today’s Wall Street Journal.

Democrats have won Pennsylvania in every presidential election since 1992, and one reason the party chose Philadelphia for its convention is to keep the state in its column. The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll, taken before the parties’ conventions, shows Mrs. Clinton leads in the state by nine points. Still, Mr. Trump’s ability to connect with white working-class voters, roughly half of the state’s voting population, gives Republicans hope that they can carry the state this year. The Clinton campaign’s challenge is to make sure Mr. Trump doesn’t tally enough votes in white, rust-belt regions to overcome her significant advantage among educated suburbanites and minorities in and near Philadelphia and elsewhere.

Although the state’s union affiliation has fallen to 13% from 17% in 2000, it is still above the national average, and substantial—about 750,000 workers. Mrs. Clinton has won the endorsement of nearly every major union, and her labor allies have begun to lobby members and families through door-to-door canvassing, literature mailings, and one-on-one conversations.

The Clinton team believes it has another major advantage: demographic changes. Since 2000, Pennsylvania has gone from being 84% white, non-Hispanic, to 77%, and the five Western Pennsylvania counties have seen slight population losses over that time.

The four counties around Philadelphia, meanwhile, are less white and much more affluent and have gained 170,000 in population since 2000. In the latest Journal/NBC/Marist Poll, Mrs. Clinton lost nearly every region of the state by single digits, other than Philadelphia and it suburbs. But she won the latter two areas, which account for nearly one-third of the state’s voting population, by huge margins: 74% to 12% in Philadelphia, and 55% to 26% in the Philadelphia suburbs.

One Comment leave one →
  1. otto permalink
    July 31, 2016 2:28 PM

    By changing state winner-take-all laws (not mentioned in the U.S. Constitution, but later enacted by 48 states), without changing anything in the Constitution, using the built-in method that the Constitution provides for states to make changes, the National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in the country.

    Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in every presidential election. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps of pre-determined outcomes.

    The bill would take effect when enacted by states with a majority of the electoral votes—270 of 538.
    All of the presidential electors from the enacting states will be supporters of the presidential candidate receiving the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC)—thereby guaranteeing that candidate with an Electoral College majority.

    A survey of Wisconsin voters showed 71% overall support for a national popular vote for President. The bill has passed 34 state legislative chambers in 23 rural, small, medium, large, red, blue, and purple states with 261 electoral votes. The bill has been enacted by 11 small, medium, and large jurisdictions with 165 electoral votes – 61% of the 270 necessary to go into effect.

    National Popular Vote

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