Now It Is All About The Electoral College And How Clinton Prevails
The mapping out of how Hillary Clinton wins is now underway in full throttle. And one of the keys is Pennsylvania, as reported in today’s Wall Street Journal.
Democrats have won Pennsylvania in every presidential election since 1992, and one reason the party chose Philadelphia for its convention is to keep the state in its column. The most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll, taken before the parties’ conventions, shows Mrs. Clinton leads in the state by nine points. Still, Mr. Trump’s ability to connect with white working-class voters, roughly half of the state’s voting population, gives Republicans hope that they can carry the state this year. The Clinton campaign’s challenge is to make sure Mr. Trump doesn’t tally enough votes in white, rust-belt regions to overcome her significant advantage among educated suburbanites and minorities in and near Philadelphia and elsewhere.
Although the state’s union affiliation has fallen to 13% from 17% in 2000, it is still above the national average, and substantial—about 750,000 workers. Mrs. Clinton has won the endorsement of nearly every major union, and her labor allies have begun to lobby members and families through door-to-door canvassing, literature mailings, and one-on-one conversations.
The Clinton team believes it has another major advantage: demographic changes. Since 2000, Pennsylvania has gone from being 84% white, non-Hispanic, to 77%, and the five Western Pennsylvania counties have seen slight population losses over that time.
The four counties around Philadelphia, meanwhile, are less white and much more affluent and have gained 170,000 in population since 2000. In the latest Journal/NBC/Marist Poll, Mrs. Clinton lost nearly every region of the state by single digits, other than Philadelphia and it suburbs. But she won the latter two areas, which account for nearly one-third of the state’s voting population, by huge margins: 74% to 12% in Philadelphia, and 55% to 26% in the Philadelphia suburbs.