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Hillary Clinton Takes Off In The Polls–‘Rules Of The Road’ Apply For 2016

August 4, 2016

Everything is taking place like many thought it would following the Democratic Convention.  In spite of a most weird and very unusual political season–and I am sure more is to follow prior to Election Day–I still hold that in our politics the basic rules of the road still apply.  I have been saying that this entire year.

What is being demonstrated from a whole array of new polling following the Democratic Convention is that Hillary Clinton has more than the average bump that most nominees attain from such a week.  The significant post-convention bounce looks like it could mean a lead of the type that remains for the duration of the campaign.

Consider the data and it is quite telling.

A new Franklin and Marshall College poll of Pennsylvania shows Clinton with an 11 point lead over Trump, 49 percent to 38 percent.

A Detroit News/WDIV-TV poll of Michigan voters finds a nine point lead for Clinton, 41 percent to 32 percent.

A poll from WBUR/MassINC poll shows Clinton opening up a 15 point lead over the GOP nominee in New Hampshire, 47 percent to 32 percent.

This week we also had polls this week from NBC News|SurveyMonkey (Clinton +8), CNN/ORC (Clinton +9) and FOX News (Clinton +10).

There is even a poll in Iowa that shows one must-win congressional district that the GOP need to win in order to take the state has Clinton up 13 points.

To me this looks like the rules of the road I have talked are taking place this cycle.  By that I mean, in part, where solid performance and a steady hand are more important than bombast.  Where primary outsiders get marginalized by a more diverse general election type voter. Where the sturdy and steady ways of campaigning and organizing state by state still are needed—and this is where Trump has failed miserably.

On top of all this polling has been the most chaotic and mean-spirited week yet from Trump and his campaign.  That all will be reflected in this coming week’s polls when Trump will look even weaker and smaller.

The race for 2016 will be one for the history books but in the end the political rules we all have seen play out before will take control again.  The large center of American rationality will still be the dominant force in November.

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