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Democrats In Line To Be Senate Majority Party

August 30, 2016

As the days pass there is more and more polling data to show that Democrats have a very good chance of becoming the majority party in the U.S. Senate.  With the GOP holding a 54-46 majority, Democrats need to pick up four Senate seats if they win the White House (because the vice president gets to break a 50-50 tie), and they need five seats if they don’t.

I am feeling very good about Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana switching to the Democratic Party.

In Pennsylvania there is strong evidence that Donald Trump is hurting GOP Senator Tommey.  Challenger Katie McGinty is coming on strong and shows the ability to take this right to Election Night.   I also have New Hampshire as a place where Trump huts far more than he helps the GOP incumbent.

Democrats can realistically get to four pickups and control of the Senate if Clinton wins the presidential race. But Nevada might be a key state because a GOP win there means Democrats will have to win another state elsewhere.   But I suspect by the time Nevada polls close Election Night we will already have the senate in our control.

SenateRatings-movement-Aug23update

 

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