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This Is Why Donald Trump Can Not Win

September 6, 2016

Take this to the bank.  It is a point made over and over around our dinner table.

“Donald Trump has run head-first into an electoral wall,” Politico reports.

“In poll after poll, Trump isn’t even close to winning a majority of the vote. While he’s narrowed the gap between his campaign and Hillary Clinton in recent weeks, in the past 21 national polls conducted using conventional phone or internet methodologies over the last five weeks, Trump’s high-water mark in a head-to-head matchup with Clinton is 44 percent.”

“And when third-party candidates — Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein — are included, Trump’s highest poll score is only 40 percent, well below Clinton’s high of 50 percent.”

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4 Comments leave one →
  1. September 7, 2016 5:10 PM

    Peter,

    Just as a side note I offer this.

    Today in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel there is a story that uses the Marquette poll and includes the views of Charles Franklin headlined under “In ultra-red Waukesha, presidential choice gives voters the blues”

    I get your point about how some use this poll (and others, too) for their own purposes but want to add the following link to show that there are press accounts that also show a level playing field.

    http://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/09/07/ultra-red-waukesha-presidential-choice-gives-voters-blues/89921440/

  2. September 7, 2016 4:59 PM

    Gregory — the point I wanted to make has more to do with the media pouncing on anything, ANYTHING that makes the WiGOP look good than a bad reflection on the Marquette poll.

  3. September 7, 2016 12:34 PM

    I have great respect for the Marquette Polls and do know that this last one was ‘weighted’. The director made that point in an interview and it was not meant to make the poll come out with any particular point of view. There is madness to the methodology (or so it seems at times) but that poll has proven to more accurate than not over time.

  4. September 6, 2016 10:29 PM

    A blogger I greatly respect — Jake of the “Economic TA Funhouse” — makes the case that the recent Marquette poll is being ginned up by Wisconsin’s (mostly) staunchly Republican media to make it seem as if Trump is in a tight race with Hillary and RoJo has a real shot at defeating Russ Feingold. They overlook the fact that the GOP sample size was much larger than before in Marquette polls… a curiosity, to say the least. But just like Jake, I have zero trust in most Wisconsin media. Other than the Cap Times and maybe Isthmus and the Beloit Daily News, they all seem to be on Walker’s payroll.

    http://jakehasablog.blogspot.com/2016/09/marquette-and-other-poll-shit.html

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