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Polls Need To Be Taken In Context

September 13, 2016

There is no surprise that some polls show a tightening of the general election for president.  But having said that it also needs to be stressed that the sky is not darkening or about to fall as Stuart Rothenberg correctly notes.

So, the next time you see media reports that Florida or Ohio is ‘close’ or that Pennsylvania is ‘tightening,’ you should not be surprised. They are narrowly divided states where it is difficult for one party to blow out the other in a competitive federal election.

But being ‘close’ isn’t the same thing as saying a state is a ‘toss up’ or both candidates have the same chance of winning it.

And because of that, the Clinton-Trump race can be both ‘competitive’ and even ‘close’ in a state and nationally, but at the same time clearly favor one nominee – in this case Clinton.

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