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Women Are Key To America’s Blue Wave Mid-Term Election Outcomes

October 17, 2018

When the Blue Wave comes in November let it be shown how folks viewed the coming event.   I am predicting–as I have for months–a solid Blue Wave.  It will not be a tsunami.  But the Blue Wave will be solid and broad-based.  The House of Representative will be ours and the mid-west will turn (in some important races) away from Donald Trump’s Republican Party.   The mood within the GOP is so toxic that now even Trump is responding to what happens if the wave strikes the House.

Trump told an interviewer that he won’t accept the blame if Republicans sink the boat.  But the GOP will know, and will have to make a drastic sea-change for survival in 2020.

The reasons for my thinking is based on the day-by-day listing of data that factors into what most matters–that being the trend line.

Once reliably Republican-voting, college-educated white women — who make up a large portion of women voters in the suburbs — flipped from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a narrow 6-point margin. That gap is now a chasm. In a poll of 59 battleground House races nationwide, college-educated white women now favor Democrats over Republicans by nearly 30 points.

In addition, the anger that women feel for the way they have been treated and maligned by Trump, and many members of the GOP, has made these mid-terms very competitive as many more people are running for office.  Just this week Trump referred to a woman as a horse-face.  This year’s midterms are being more vigorously contested than those in the past, mostly because more Democratic women are running for office, particularly in the South.

Women have proven to understand their power all year long.  While reading about guitar sales this week I came across this nugget.  According to a study from Fender, the guitar company, 50 percent of all “beginner and aspirational” guitar players are women. When the company found similar results a few years ago, it thought the ratio might a transient result of the “Taylor Swift factor,” the company’s CEO explained, but it seems to have turned into a lasting trend.

What women are helping the Democratic Party achieve is nothing short an old-fashioned butt-kicking come November.  Democratic challengers out-raised Republican House incumbents in 92 House districts in the last three months — a staggering mismatch that boosts the odds of a GOP washout in November.  To put it more plainly there is no historical precedent for financing this broad and deep for congressional challengers.

Over and over these types of reports allow for those who watch the trend lines to grasp what will happen in 20 days of this posting.

  1. October 18, 2018 10:50 AM

    You are mistaken Mark.

    The federal government does have a role in state elections. Over the past two years, as an example, various Secretaries of State have asked for monies for cyber protection of the polls. This summer VP Pence urged states to accept more federal aid in securing election systems. People are concerned about the protection of the ballot box. That is a federal issue, even though states operate their own elections.

    The federal government (as an example) set up standards about drivers’ licenses, which then impact voter ID laws. Anyone who has read our history will be aware of court cases and federal oversight in elections in southern states, as an example.

    If you want some great titles of books to wade into these matters you only need to ask.

  2. Mark Phillips permalink
    October 18, 2018 7:45 AM

    The recall was not a federal issue so Obama had zero rights to stick his nose into. I sit a smirk every time liberals lose an election because they believe they lose due to some type of cheating not because voters reject their ideology

  3. October 18, 2018 12:15 AM

    We so agree, Peter.

  4. October 17, 2018 6:20 PM

    BUT, as I have insinuated before, we need federal election monitoring for these elections–DESPERATELY, to make sure every vote is counted correctly and that eligible voters are not turned away at the polls. I am still miffed at President Obama for not providing this protection for Walker’s recall and reelection, which were almost certainly rigged.

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