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2020 Presidential Election Predictions From Caffeinated Politics

October 31, 2020

Given the chaotic and bombastic journey we all have been forced to endure it seems like several lifetimes have passed since January 2017. Finally, however, we are now only hours away from the conclusion of the 2020 presidential election. Soon the counting of the ballots from the voters will commence.

I have never before felt compelled to start my predictions with as frank a statement as I do this cycle. We are well aware that more than just the two names of the major presidential party nominees appear on the ballot. Because Donald Trump showed contempt and reckless disregard for our political institutions and constitutional safeguards means that our democracy itself is at stake in this election. Never before have I needed to add such a dire line to my predictions. That, too, is a sign of the times.

For the past four years we have watched Trump supporters applaud and give license to the most outrageous, unprincipled, immoral, and unconstitutional whims, desires, and transactional fancies of Trump. When religious people did not and would not call out for an immediate cessation of removing children from their parents at the southern border I knew there was no moral center left in those who called themselves conservatives. They had sold their souls to Trump. That was, for me, the point of no return when it came to Trump and his base.

Are the majority of Americans bitter about what Trump has done to this nation, and those from coast to coast who allowed him to undermine our democracy? Absolutely. But we did far more than just get angry. We worked, talked, blogged, encouraged, and then in the last weeks voted. Election Day will be our collective national response to Trump and his supporters.

Every four years since 1980 I have put my predictions down in writing as I have done below. Given the gravity of this traumatic time I will post up front what I view as the outcome of the presidential race.

Joe Biden will be elected President of the United States and Kamala Harris will be elected as Vice-President. Victory comes to the Democratic Party with 306 Electoral College votes. Farmers back where I grew up would report this news as Trump sure got his plow cleaned! Details along with how Democrats retake the United States Senate follow, along with other election predictions. As always thanks for reading, and please, no wagering.

(Please note that Nebraska in map below does not show–due to the program not allowing me the opportunity–to split the 2nd Congressional District apart from the whole. Therefore final Electoral College vote for Joe–and yes, he is the type of guy we can call by his first name– should read 306. We will soon all be calling him Mr. President.)

This year I have listed the 50 states in alphabetical order with each one either being Blue or Red. Biden wins 306 Electoral College Votes, Trump will get 233.

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Florida
–Pasco County early in the night will provide roadmap for state. If Trump cannot maintain 2016 percentage this will write the headlines.
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois

Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana

Maine—Without 3rd party interloper on 2020 ballot all Maine is for Biden.
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
The white male voters in McComb County and the Black turnout in Wayne County will reveal much about the state and our national future.
Minnesota

Mississippi
Missouri
Montana

Nebraskaexcept for 2nd CD which will cast Electoral Vote for Biden
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey

New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
–Wake County is an example of where Clinton did well in 2016. Now how much better will Biden perform with suburban women who consider the thought of Trump back in the White House akin to an outhouse breeze?
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania

Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas..
Follow Collin County as it will provide clues about what is taking place in Texas… Romney won the county by 32%, while Trump won it by 16% and in 2018 Cruz won senate race there by 6%.
Utah

Vermont
Virginia
Washington

West Virginia
Wisconsin–All eyes on the WOW counties, not the for winner, but the percentage of loss for Trump compared to 2016. Black turnout in Milwaukee County will be very useful information. Eyes also on white males without college degree in Brown County. Biden wins here by 6 points.
Wyoming

United States Senate

Arizona….If you wonder what creates excitement for this prognosticator let me point to this race. A Democratic astronaut who understands the need for gun control is about to undo a Republican xenophobe at the polls. Martha McSally loses yet another statewide election. Meanwhile, Mark Kelly rockets his way to Washington!

Colorado….Democrats pick up up this seat due to yet one more tone-deaf Republican who forgot the people matter more than fealty to Trump. All year Democratic candidate John Hickenlooper has correctly linked the two Republicans, and on Election Day the voters in this state will throw both overboard. Cory Gardner would not champion federal production of needed materials for the pandemic and no one now is going to rush production of lifeboats.

Iowa….Joni Ernst wins.

Maine….One of the long-standing troubling behavioral issues that Republican Susan Collins exhibited was acting like an innocent lamb who had no idea the forest was filled with carnivores. She accepted the craziest promises from the GOP in exchange for her votes and then never received what was promised. Truth is, of course, she knew all along there was nothing to be returned for her conservative votes, but that never stopped her wishy-washy statements to her constituents. On Election Day the voters have a clear unambiguous message for Collins. They will send her back to the potato fields and lift Democratic candidate Sara Gideon up as their new senator.

Michigan…The desire by Republicans to pick off this Democratic Senate seat underscores how desperate the GOP is in making an attempt–any attempt–to show strength someplace–any place this cycle. Gary Peters might have been more vulnerable two years ago, or two years hence. But with the right-wing lunacy of kidnapping a governor and the high unpopularity of Trump means that John James will lose yet another statewide race. A Black man as a Republican candidate in 2020 leaves voters wondering what else he is not wise to when it comes to issues that face the state.

Montana….This was never a real possibility for Democrats but one has to try. Steve Daines prevails.

North Carolina…All summer while following this race I have never thought Republican Thom Tillis would win. He is not popular or found favorable by the voters. While he tried to paint Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham as a cad, and one can agree the texts to a woman other than his wife were most unseemly, we can not forget Tillis supports a three-time married presidential nominee who paid for sex with a porn star. This race will not be won or lost on the field of morality. Cunningham simply wins due to voters liking Tillis even less.

South Carolina…Aunt Lindsey wins. But what an amazing race Jamie Harrison waged, and it shows again Democrats in the South need to be aware of the powerhouse political potential of African-American candidates in statewide races. Meanwhile, Aunt Lindsey needs to find a man and in so doing lose his inside-the-closet rage that he too often unleashes in his politics.

Wisconsin Legislature

The dream of legislative Republicans to further strengthen their political hand with a veto-proof majority in each house crumbled degree-by-degree with the hour-by-hour implosion of their presidential nominee. Slow motion train wrecks are the hardest thing for a political party to endure, while the opposition makes popcorn and settles in to see how many cars careen off the track.

I am not predicting, but all the same would not be surprised, to see the voters of the 8th State Senate District unend the political life of Alberta Darling. College educated women would be the reason for a GOP loss, should it occur. If it should happen means time to eat another Election Night celebrity brownie. (Yes, Election Nights at our home over the decades have traditions!)

In the 10th Senate District I predict a loss for the Democratic incumbent. Patty Schachtner, due to a special election victory not being able to be sustained with a general election turnout.

All in the family will be the outcome in the Green Bay area as Jonathan Hansen wins the 30th State Senate district. His uncle, Dave Hansen, has been a steadfast example of constituent-centered representation and that bodes well for the hand-off to his nephew. The ‘bread-and-butter’ style of running a legislative office is the smartest way to operate, and Dave’s’ good name counts far more than a bucket of Republican money for Eric Wimberger.

In the 32nd Senate District Donald Trump will help Democratic candidate Brad Pfaff. If not for Trump’s disaster in Washington Pfaff would lose as he is just too politically slick (and irksome) for many voters. But in a heavily Democratic election cycle the more down-home type candidate Dan Kapanke will lose. While disagreeing with Kapanke on the issues I would enjoy having dinner with him. Not so much with the other contender.

I predict Robyn Vining in the 14th Assembly District loses her seat. She has energy and intellect but the district is not drawn for a Democrat to win in a general election. Winning the seat in a special election is not a true indicator of the voter makeup of the district.

Statehouses

I add a few thoughts about statehouse chambers as my nerdy readers well understand to be vital as redistricting lines are created following the census. I note here Iowa is in this mix, even though they have a commission process (which has my support) of removing the partisan hands from the task.

I predict Republicans winning Iowa for Trump and Ernst therefore I do not predict the goal of Democrats picking the needed four seats for a takeover of the lower chamber.

I do, however, predict four seats are going to flip to the Democrats in Michigan where they will take over the House. This state has seen the dangers of Trump, lunacy from right-wing fanatics, and this all will aid in the public response via the ballot. The trend lines with polling in Michigan allow my confidence in this prediction.

Ballot Measures

Some of the ballot measures that will be settled this election strikes to the heart of what interests CP.

Alaska–Ranked-choice voting, which lets voters rank the candidates in their order of preference instead of choosing just one is on the ballot. In fact, this measure would also establish a top-four primary, where the top four vote-getters in the primary advance to the general election ballot, regardless of party.  It will pass.

Colorado–A measure to change language in statutes from “every citizen can vote” to “only a citizen can vote.” In this state 17-year-olds can vote in primaries if they will be 18 at the time of the general election. This measure, if passed, would remove that. I predict it loses. We should not in any way discourage soon-to-be adult voters from this civic responsibility.

Massachusetts–Here is yet another state that is primed to accept ranked-choice voting, which lets voters rank the candidates in their order of preference instead of choosing just one and this one is bound to win by a large percentage.

Mississippi–Voters have a chance to put an end to their Confederate flag and vote for a new design—a big magnolia flower. If for some reason they can not abide that there is comfort in knowing these folks can not revert to their racist past as the state legislature is committed to getting rid of the Confederate emblem. Since many voters there use their bed sheets as tablecloths and then night vestments means making a prediction on this measure would be folly. So CP will just watch the votes be counted.

This will be the first presidential election since being an adult and away from home where there will be no election party to attend or one to be given. The pandemic has marred everything in our land.

When working in radio in 1984, and after the station went off the air I headed to a political party in Sturgeon Bay where barbecue sandwiches abounded. I recall Mrs. Mosgaller bringing me a plate of food. Democrats lost to Reagan but the energy of America on such a night rises above the fray.

That election would prove to be one of the more gratifying ones as I was able to broadcast from WDOR as the results were coming in from the nation and around Door County.  With our national feed from ABC News, along with a reporter at the local courthouse, I was able to weave the narrative of the night, throw in tidbits and trivia, and anchor the proceedings from the studio.  I had prepared a binder of all sorts of information on state races and historical oddities that made their way over the airwaves that night.  If one can ever be ‘in their element’ that was certainly the moment for me.

In 2004 James and I started hosting every four years a huge party where people could arrive at any point they wished and encouraged to linger long into the early morning hours. Several always did! We always made food that promoted carbs and high-energy so no one would miss a single state being called.

This year James and I will still be creating in our home the same great culinary delights–lasagna, homemade bread with garlic, chips and dip, seafood with melted butter to bring a touch of Maine to Wisconsin, and of course desserts. And we have our home decked out for Election Night!

So to be safe in this pandemic we will be on the phone with those who share our love of politics. They may not be here in person but are in spirit as we watch the nation…….

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