Low Voter Turnout Will Hurt Sen. Spector In Pennsylvania

This was what the Spector forces feared.  It will not be a long night in the Keystone State tonight.  This race is over.

Voter turnout is light in virtually all parts of the state, particularly in Philadelphia, the office of the Secretary of State confirms, developments that are likely to favor Joe Sestak.

Arlen Specter needs high turnout because his supporters are thought to be less enthusiastic, while Sestak’s are more motivated. Specter particularly is counting on high turnout in Philly.

But Charlie Young, a spokesman for the Secretary of State, says turnout in the state, where the weather is bad today, is low.

Predictions For Primary Election Night In Pennsylvania And Arkansas

The primaries that are taking place in Pennsylvania and Arkansas are generating much anticipation from those who follow politics and care about the issues.  The two main draws tonight are in Pennsylvania where Senator Specter has battled with his primary foe Representative Sestak, and in Arkansas where Senator Lincoln has tangled with Bill Halter.

First Arkansas.

I think Senator Lincoln has a very good chance of winning tonight, which means taking the required 50% of the vote in a three-way contest.  The reason I say this is due to the third candidate, D.C. Morrison, who has taken a highly conservative approach to the issues and was trying to run to the right of both Lincoln and Halter.  In other words, Morrison is way off the reservation and I do not think there are enough votes there in this primary to deny Lincoln the win.  (Remember that IF she deserves to win is a whole other issue.)  Morrison has been able, to his credit, to stay out of the back-and-forth between the two main combatants, but I have not seen any evidence that his message has resonated.

Lincoln wins just shy of 51% of the vote.

Now Pennsylvania.

This is the night that the long political career for Senator Arlen Specter ends.  I have mixed feelings about this.  Though he has been one of the sensible middle within the Republican Party for many long years, and allowed for compromise and thoughtful dialogue to often win the day, there is a sense that he has lost his way for political expediency when he switched political parties.   I think the tea leaves made clear the state of this race when in the closing days President Obama did not make another trip to the Keystone State on behalf of the beleaguered Senator.  One of Spector’s problems tonight will be that he needs a huge black turnout to win.  But as we have been reminded for weeks the Senator only had a 25% black turnout in 2004.  I do not think that putting a ‘D” behind his name for a primary in 2010 will enhance that number. 

I call Sestak by 4 points.

Don’t Miss This Sunday Morning’s TV Talk Shows


Senator Arlen Specter will do his first TV interview with ‘Meet the Press,’ live via remote from Philly, then will do ‘Face the Nation.’

Michael Steele In Need Of Medication After Senator Specter Changes Parties

The rhetoric today has been really amusing to hear, as the charged remarks from the Republican Party pile up like wet unusable cord wood in the back yard following Senator Arlen Specter’s decision to align himself with the Democratic Party.  The most bombastic words came from the man who may not have his job very much longer, the current National Republican Party Chairperson,  Michael Steele.  It is after all Steele’s job to broaden the party, not see it shrink even further.  (Less we forget the special congressional election the GOP lost in New York last week on top of today’s shocking news.)  The fact Steele is not moving in the correct direction as party chair makes his words ring hollow.  As such he should have used a more restrained manner when commenting on the big political news today.  But there is not much reasonable maturity in the GOP anymore.  What we witnessed today is as good as they have to offer.

How do you spell GOP?  W-H-I-G

A heated Michael Steele told CNN Tuesday longtime Republican Sen. Arlen Specter essentially “flipped the bird” at the GOP leadership with his decision to bolt from the party he has been a member of for more than four decades.

Speaking to CNN’s Gloria Borger and Kyra Philips, the Republican National Committee Chairman said it was “not only disrespectful, but downright rude” of Specter to make this decision after the national party made it clear it would stand behind him in a contentious primary fight.

“[National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John] Cornyn went out on the line for this man,” he said. “For the senator to flip the bird back to Senator Cornyn and the Republican Senate Leadership, a team that stood by him, who went to the bat for him in 2004, to save his hide is not only disrespectful but down right rude,”

“I’m sure his mama didn’t raise him this way,” Steele added.

Steele, who said Specter had not given the party leadership a heads up about his decision, also expressed confidence the Pennsylvania senator would either lose a Democratic primary in his home state or the general election to the eventual Republican candidate.

“I seriously doubt he’ll have a scot-free ride on the Democratic side no matter what kind of deal the trial lawyers and Democratic Party have made,” Steele said. “[Pennsylvania] Gov. Ed Rendell may not run for the U.S. Senate, but a lot of congressmen will look at that seat — this is an open seat for the Democrats.”

“If Sen. Specter survives in the fall — get ready to go to the mat, baby, because we’re coming after you and taking you out,” added Steele.

Holy Cow! Sen. Arlen Specter Now A Democrat

This was rumored, but I never thought it to be more than a wish.

Veteran Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter told colleagues Tuesday that he switched from the Republican to the Democratic Party, Sen. Harry Reid says.

The fact is that the Republican Party is becoming a more smaller, and even more  anally-retentive conservative group that plays to the meaner and more narrow-minded in the nation.  Where the GOP goes to find a majority again is a mystery.  Arlen Specter could not abide that type of party any longer.

The Specter party switch would give Democrats a filibuster-proof Senate majority of 60 seats if Al Franken holds his current lead in the disputed Minnesota Senate race.

“Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan Big Tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right,” Specter said in a statement posted by his office on PoliticsPA.com.

“Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats. I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans.”

Specter, a five-term Senate veteran, was greeted by a loud, sustained round of applause by dozens of constituents outside his Washington office shortly after the news broke.

Welcome to the Democratic Party, Arlen.