Political Cake Baked For Presidential Election
The countdown clock on my blog reads eight days until Election Day—as if we are not aware of the number of days every morning when we awake. With the news about the Hillary Clinton emails and the FBI investigation topping each network broadcast leaves many to wonder where we are headed come next Tuesday.
I have stressed over and over on this blog–even after the most bizarre episodes in this election cycle–that the rules of the road still apply. Even though the Clinton campaign has hit a rocky path there is now no reason to not state it again.
There is a built-in result to this election given the extreme partisan make-up of the electorate. That means the news from this past weekend will not move large blocs of votes. Some 20 million ballots have already been cast—and the Democratic GOTV efforts have shown why those operations are vital and how the demographics of the early vote show women are casting ballots heavier than men in those areas where Clinton needs it to happen–as just one example.
There is always an October Surprise, and while it is unsettling I honestly contend that it will not dramatically upset the state of the race for president. There are, however, likely to be down-ballot problems for Democrats in some states as a result of the FBI investigation. While there is a clear path for 270 electoral votes nationally there might be less room now, for example, to defeat GOP Senator Blount in Missouri.
The rules of the road I have spoken about all year have in part dealt with the massive structural advantage Democrats have with the Clinton campaign. They have put in place a top-notch and experienced in-the-field network along with a voter data program second to none. It may be true that Republicans have an enthusiastic base of supporters, but there are a tremendous number of anti-Trump voters who will walk on nails to cast a ballot to stop that dangerous man from being elected. It needs also to be stated that Trump and the GOP have not been able to broaden their appeal far outside the angry white male base that has propelled his candidacy.
Polls are tightening largely as Republican voters “come home.” Also let us not forget that reflection in the polls is not unusual for a presidential race at this point.
I have followed politics closely for decades and the rules of the road always apply. Looking at the voting base that will not depart from Clinton along with her path that is very much aimed for 270 electoral college votes leads me to one conclusion.
The presidential cake is baked and done.
We just need to count down the days.