Hard to say exactly what is underway.
Consider this fact in light of tight races across the nation—-In Georgia and North Carolina, two of more than 30 states that allow voters to cast ballots before Election Day without providing a reason, roughly 21% of those who already have voted show no record of participating in the 2010 midterms.
Simply fascinating!
There is no way not to eat this story up and ponder how Wisconsin fits into the stats given how close our gubernatorial race continues to be, and that our state has the fewest undecided voters among all the states holding gubernatorial races.
As I have stated over and over on this blog there is no end to the fascination that these mid-terms have provided. I can honestly say in my life-time I have never witnessed anything similar to what is now happening all at once in senate and gubernatorial elections. This speaks to the unease and angst in the voters at paralyzed government and all too-often tone-deaf politicians. How this breaks to one party or the other, or gets split will be key to the number of people who turn out to cast a ballot.
Make strong coffee and plenty of desserts for Election Night–and Election Eve is one week away!
I take the liberty of posting a huge chunk of this article as it is simply fascinating to see the nation as a whole so divided.
Through mid-day Sunday, the average polling spread for each of the 36 races at Real Clear Politics (RCP) revealed:
● Five contests within less than one point: Colorado, Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Wisconsin
● Five between 1.0 and 4.9 points: Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Massachusetts
● Seven between 5.0 and 9.9 points: Arizona, Arkansas, Hawaii, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Rhode Island
● Nineteen at more than 10.0 points: Alabama, California, Idaho, Iowa, Maryland, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Wyoming
What’s remarkable about the 2014 cycle – should the polling averages hold – is the unusually large number of races this cycle with razor-thin polling ‘advantages’ of just fractions of a percentage point.
Real Clear Politics averages find:
● Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado up 0.8 points over challenger Bob Beauprez
● Democratic Governor Dan Malloy of Connecticut (pictured at top) trailing GOPer Tom Foley by 0.3 points in a rematch of a 2010 race decided by 0.6 points
● Democratic Governor Pat Quinn of Illinois down 0.2 points to Republican Bruce Rauner
● Republican Governor Sam Brownback of Kansas tied with Democrat Paul Davis
● Republican Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin tied with Democrat Mary Burke
Add to that narrow spreads in three other races at just around 1 percentage point:
● Republican Governor Rick Scott of Florida trails Democrat Charlie Crist by 1.0 point
● Republican Nathan Deal of Georgia is up 1.3 points over Democrat Jason Carter
● Republican Paul LePage of Maine is up 1.8 points over Democratic Congressman Mike Michaud
In short, each of the eight tightest gubernatorial races in the country according to RCP polling averages all involve incumbents.
What’s more, if most of these races continue to go down to the wire, the 2014 cycle might just set a modern record for the most races decided by a fraction of a percentage point.
Smart Politics examined the more than 1,600 gubernatorial elections conducted during midterm and presidential election cycles since 1900 and found that only three cycles have produced as many as five contests with a victory margin of less than one percentage point.
There are at least eight in the mix to do so in 2014.
Across the 57 election cycles since 1900, two have yielded six gubernatorial races decided by less than a point – 1940 and 1962.
In 1940, the country saw down-to-the-wire races in six of 34 contests, or 17.6 percent: in Indiana (0.2 points), Kansas (0.1), Massachusetts (0.3), Missouri (0.2), Washington (0.8), and Wisconsin (0.9).
Republicans won five of these six races – only falling short in the open seat Hoosier State race.
In 1962, six of 36 gubernatorial contests saw victory margins of less than a point, or 16.7 percent: with Democrats winning in Massachusetts (0.2 points), Minnesota (0.0), North Dakota (0.9), and Wisconsin (0.9) and the GOP winning Maine (0.2) and Rhode Island (0.1).
In 1916 five of 36 races yielded a victory margin of less than one point:Arizona (0.1 point), Idaho (0.4), Missouri (0.3), Ohio (0.6), and West Virginia (0.9).
The only other cycles since the 20th Century in which at least 10 percent of gubernatorial races were won by less than a point were in 1902 (3 of 27, 11.1 percent) and 1974 (4 of 35, 11.4 percent).
Overall, just 82 of the 1,661 gubernatorial races held during midterm and presidential election cycles since 1900 have been decided by less than a point, or 4.9 percent.
Another 306 contests were decided between 1.0 and 4.9 points (18.3 percent) and 326 others by between 5.0 and 9.9 points (19.6 percent).
In other words, a larger percentage of gubernatorial races in midterm and presidential election cycles have been decided by less than five points (23.4 percent) than between 5.0 and 9.9 points (19.6 percent).
I do love my polar bears. Black and brown bears, too. So when I read this story there was no doubt it had to be posted.
In an ultra ‘Only in Canada’ story, outside trick-or-treating has been banned in a Nunavut town for fear of polar bears, yes, polar bears.
According to the Nunatsiaq News agency, children in Arviat will be trick-or-treating indoors this year to avoid the possibility of running into polar bears on their town’s streets.
The local news source explains that the small town has grown a reputation as the polar bear capital of Nunavut. A point that is particularly true in October, when bears begin to make their fall migration North.
Even this summer, according to Nunatsiaq News, the small town had to issue a rare July warning after polar bears were spotted eating at the local dump and wandering through the community of about 2,300 residents.
Just one of the reasons there is such unrest and angst in the nation this election cycle.
Evaluating just the Democrats in Congress, 67 percent disapprove, a high in polling since 1994 (albeit by a single point). Even more, 72 percent, disapprove of the Republicans in Congress, narrowly missing their all-time record for public scorn, 75 percent in January 2012.
The results sum up the public’s broad political discontent and send another ominous signal to the Democrats, whose favorability rating, another measure of public sentiment, fell to a 30-year low in a recent ABC/Post poll. (The GOP again rated even lower, albeit not at a record low.)
While the Republican Party has weaker ratings overall, history suggests that the risk is more the Democrats’, as the party that holds the presidency. From 1974 through 2010, using available data closest to each midterm election, approval of Congress has correlated with losses for the then-president’s party at a substantial .63 (on a scale in which 1 is a perfect, positive match).
Congress was about this unpopular heading into a midterm twice before, with 18 and 21 percent approval in a pair of polls in October 1994 and 23 percent (among registered voters) in October 2010. Both times the incumbent president’s party got nailed, losing 54 and 63 House seats, respectively. Analysts aren’t suggesting anything like that kind of rout this year, given other dynamics – but the pattern marks the Democrats’ risk, as do similar analyses, reported last week, correlating presidential approval and “wrong track” sentiment with in-party losses (.68 and .65, respectively).
Or should the question read which Republican is the craziest?
When it comes to Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee it might be a draw. They are both one chromosome from being an ear of corn.
When Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee were asked to deliver dueling speeches at a secret gathering of America’s most influential social conservatives, both camps knew what the invitation represented: a private audition to be the evangelical movement’s presidential candidate in 2016.
They prepared accordingly, and on back-to-back nights in mid-September, the White House hopefuls delivered impassioned addresses to the Council for National Policy’s clandestine conference in Atlanta.
Ted Cruz is a cage rattler who likes to get out there and talk about limited government and defunding Obamacare and so on. But when it comes to connecting with the faith community nobody does it better than Mike Huckabee,” said Alice Stewart, Huckabee’s spokeswoman and senior adviser. “When it comes to rallying social conservatives, Ted Cruz doesn’t hold a candle to Mike Huckabee.”
Stewart continued: “We’ve been to a lot of the events where Ted Cruz and his dad speak. And listen, Rafael Cruz is not running for president. That’s what a lot of people forget—when it comes to a social conservative crowd, it’s Rafael Cruz, not Ted Cruz, who really connects with them.”
Just another unpredictable event in the year of the suspenseful mid-term elections.
Effective activist government isn’t built on good intentions. To provide consistently good results, especially for the state’s most vulnerable and troubled residents, agencies need to focus on outcomes, learn from their errors, and preserve and replicate approaches that succeed. Baker, a former health care executive, has made a career of doing just that. During this campaign, he has focused principally on making state government work better. The emphasis is warranted. And in that spirit, the Globe endorses Charlie Baker for governor.
The other obvious question would be will the mature members of the establishment wing of the party—the little that remains–be able to reassert the needed control away from the teabaggers who are working to destroy the party right after they finish with the country?
Before the Republican Party can govern they must first deal with the teabaggers.
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy bluntly warned that Republicans will blow the presidency in 2016 if they don’t make some radical changes – and quick.
McCarthy told a group of Long Island donors that their gains in the House will amount to little if they can’t govern over the next two years.
Legislative cliffs are over. (How it took the GOP this long to figure out such tactics are awful to the process of government while the markets despise them should underscore that the party is not constituted with the brightest lights.) One muscular, unified agenda will bridge both chambers. If he has his way, House and Senate Republicans will kick off the year at a joint retreat to get on the same page. He and Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.) have already been holding private dinners with lawmakers from both chambers to build relationships.
“My belief is you have one chance to make a first impression,” McCarthy said, as his black SUV crawled eastward on Long Island. “From the very first day after the election, we should be laying out to the American public what the expectations are. Why make two different agendas?”
McCarthy is intently focused on the first few months in session, which he sees as critical for his agenda. He would like to use the lame-duck session to pass a long-term government-funding bill, so Washington can begin focusing on big-picture legislating, instead of just trying to keep government’s doors open. He also is aiming to renew a host of lapsed business-focused tax provisions and renew the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act — two items with bipartisan support.
Now the following is something I have long supported and applaud–no matter who proposes the idea.
Also in McCarthy’s crosshairs: the congressional budget process. He thinks writing a budget each year is antiquated, and said Congress should consider budgeting once every two years. Also, he wants to reform the Congressional Budget Office so it studies the impact of legislation over, say, 20 years, instead of 10. He said Congress often times gets “stuck in our subcommittees” and he wants to “start looking at what we’re doing in the next 50 years.” McCarthy says Washington is frozen because the “structure holds us back.”
CAFFEINATED POLITICS 