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Scott Walker’s Advantage In Iowa Erased Says NBC News/Marist Poll

July 26, 2015

The latest from the polls.

“Trump has surged to the lead in the New Hampshire … primary and virtually erased Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s advantage in the Iowa caucuses, according to new NBC News/Marist polls … In Iowa, Walker still tops the field with 19 percent … two points ahead of Trump … Interviews … began on July 14 – the day after the Walker campaign’s launch event in Wisconsin. The only other candidate in double digits is … Bush, at 12 percent. …

Reason For Democrats To Continue Smiling–Donald Trump Looms Large In New GOP Presidential Poll

July 26, 2015

I could talk about how unseemly Donald Trump is, what he is doing to the process of electing a president, and other related concerns about his tone and actions.  But that needs to take a back seat today to a new CNN/ORC poll that is showcasing the huge problems that confront the Republican Party.

It is also the same news that is making every Democrat smile this morning.  Just as we have inwardly–or even outwardly– been doing since Trump entered the race for president.

Today we learn that Donald Trump has increased his support among GOP voters and now stands atop the race for the party’s nomination, according to the latest CNN/ORC poll.  As I will point out below there is no way that respondents are thinking seriously or clearly about this matter.

Among Republicans, Trump has 18% support, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with 15%. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has 10% support among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who are registered to vote. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.

Trump’s backing has climbed 6 points since a late June poll, while support for Bush and Walker has not changed significantly. None of the other 14 candidates earned double-digit support.

This poll is the first publicly released national telephone survey to be conducted entirely after Trump’s criticism of Sen. John McCain’s military record during an Iowa campaign event last weekend, drawing rebukes from other Republicans for saying he didn’t think McCain is a war hero.

The internals show some just quirky findings.

Consider that a sizable 22% say they think he’ll eventually win the party’s nomination for president.   There is no plausible way for anyone to construct a scenario where Trump beats the campaign infrastructure of  Jeb Bush or Senator Rubio.    There is no way that serious primary voters will discount large and complex policy matters for the simplistic rhetoric of Trump.

15% say they’d like to see Trump make an independent run for the presidency.   That would spell sure doom for any Republican chance to win the White House.   One has to wonder how educated this polling sample is since there is no way to take this seriously.

58% of white evangelicals surveyed wants Trump to remain in the race.    So am I to assume that Trump’s pro-choice actions are now acceptable to Iowa’s most right-wing voters?

Clearly what this poll shows is that some Republicans who only read the headlines–and there have been many in the past weeks touting Trump–are easily led to follow the loudest and most brash.  I know the establishment wing of the party–even what constitutes that today given the GOP’s far right tilt–will in the end nominate a far more moderate and intelligent person.  A candidate that might even win.

It will not be Donald Trump.

It will be Jeb Bush.

Upcoming Frontline Program: How The NRA Works To Stop Gun Legislation

July 25, 2015

Frontline, a PBS news magazine will examine this issue on Wednesday August 5th. In Madison the program will air at 10:00 P.M. Viewers in other areas need to check local listings.

One of the sadder spectacles in congress is how the National Rifle Association with a ton of cash and a limitless supply of politically charged brute force has been able to stymie needed gun legislation.   This year alone—up to the time of this posting–there have been over 190 shootings of four people or more in this nation.   Even more telling, concerning the dark side of the NRA’s political operation, is that polling shows nearly 74% of National Rifle Association members “support requiring background checks for all gun sales.”

But people do not matter to the leaders of the NRA. Not even the concern of their members.

This reminds me of the outlandish and deadly brand of religion known as Wahhabism. That is a most bizarre and austere form of Islam that insists on a literal interpretation of the Koran. Much like religious radicals, so too does the NRA act illogically, as they promote a pure austere form of political control concerning the Second Amendment.

Time and again deadly gun violence is reported in the headlines and yet nothing happens to allow for our nation to resemble other developed ones around the globe who do not constantly have to bury tens of thousands of their citizens each year from guns.

What is the problem?

Frontline, a PBS news magazine will examine this issue on Wednesday August 5th. In Madison the program will air at 10:00 P.M. Viewers in other areas need to check local listings.

 

 

The Power Of A Small Child

July 25, 2015

This might be one reason James and I have no children.

We are at the Farmers’ Market at the Capitol Square and this very sweet little girl asks those passing by “Please buy some of my flowers.”

We take about four more steps away from her soft voice and I turn and walk back. “Which one do you want?” she asks.

“Any bouquet with some yellow blooms,” I say.  She picks out one and wraps the ends in a plastic bag.

Truth is had she wanted to sell me the whole lot that was left I would be out buying flower vases right now.

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Why Did Louisiana Theatre Shooter Have Weapons?

July 25, 2015

Once again a most awful shooting makes for headlines.  We have to ask what is wrong with Americans who seemingly have no sense to figure out the fact we have too many guns, too few tough gun restrictions, and too few capable leaders who will demand we make changes.

The gun massacre in Louisiana yesterday was one of those; a man with a handgun that was designed only to kill, killing helpless people in a movie theatre. Once again, it seems essential to give the young victims faces—Mayci Breaux, who was just twenty-one, and Jillian Johnson, who was thirty-three. Once more, one has the heart-breaking duty of imagining them dead on a night when they thought only of a small and silly pleasure.

Once again, someone for whom possessing a semi-automatic .40-calibre handgun ought to have been made hugely difficult was able to get his hands on one, with results we know and that, given his history, might have been predictable. Within hours of the killings, we found out that the killer was, well, not the first man you’d want in line for a weapon. As recently as 2008, the AP reports, the killer’s family petitioned a court to have him involuntarily committed “because he was a danger to himself and others.” Apparently, his wife took the guns out of their home when he “exhibited extreme erratic behavior” and made “disturbing statements.” Just the man who ought to have a semi-automatic pistol—the simple kind of gun-control laws that exist in almost every other developed country, which make it hard to get your hands on a gun, particularly when you have any history of mental illness, would likely have kept those two young people alive.

NRA Bloody Double Feature

July 24, 2015

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Who Are The Donald Trump Supporters?

July 24, 2015

No one can be shocked at the polling demographics for Trump.  The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll internals show what type of person aligns with someone like Trump.

Trump backers tend to be less well-educated: Among those with no college degree, 32 percent support Trump, compared to a mere 8 percent of those with a college education. They tend to be less affluent: Among those who make less than $50,000 a year, 31 percent back Trump.

They are younger: 28 percent of those between 18 and 49 chose Trump, compared with 20 percent of those older than 50. There is little Trump gender gap: He won the support of 25 percent of men and 23 percent of women.

Bottom line there are not enough crazy angry white people to nominate Trump or to propel him forward.

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